Brazil Has Re-elected Lula. Its Betting Market Now Has Four Years to Get This Right, and Latin America Is Watching.

On Sunday Brazil re-elected Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva to a fourth term. The Superior Electoral Court’s official count gives him 51.78% of valid votes against 48.22% for Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, a margin of roughly 4.4 million votes. It was a genuine comeback: Lula trailed in the first round, 45.16% to 47.03%, and no candidate who led the first round had ever before lost the runoff.

It was not a clean night. Voting was extended by two hours on a Supreme Court order, after reports of transport failures in several states, and Flávio Bolsonaro has said he will not recognise the result and will seek annulment. Given the size of the margin, most analysts expect that challenge to fail. But it adds one more layer of uncertainty to a country our industry already finds hard to read.

For gaming, the political result matters less than what it locks in.

The ban is no longer a campaign position. It is policy.

On 25 September the government issued Provisional Measure 1.394/2026, banning the operation and advertising of fixed-odds betting. On election day, the same Sunday, its 30-day window closed: 85 federal authorisations covering 188 brands expired, and the licence fees operators paid will not be refunded. Operators and the industry association ANJL filed 19 lawsuits in the federal courts. Not one won an injunction.

When the measure was announced, I called it extremely unfair, and I still believe that. Brazilian commentators have made the point well this week: with Lula re-elected, the ban stops being a campaign banner and becomes state policy for another four years.

There are still three doors:

• The Supreme Court. Justice Luiz Fux is rapporteur on the constitutional challenges (ADIs 8024, 8027 and 8028) and deferred a decision until after the vote. A ruling with retroactive effect could revive the licences. That is the industry’s best hope and its longest shot.
• Congress. The measure must be voted on by 23 November, extendable once by 60 days, and from 9 November it locks the legislative agenda. Amendments have been filed that would keep sports betting while tightening the rest.
• The government itself. Without another election in front of it, it can afford to trade prohibition for regulation.

Why I think prohibition will not survive contact with the numbers

Three facts should weigh on Brasília.

The money was real. The federal tax authority collected R$11.1 billion from betting and gaming between January and September this year. That revenue does not move offshore by itself; the bettors do, and the tax stays behind.

The ban did not win the election. In the Nexus poll ahead of the runoff, 59% of Brazilians said they supported a permanent ban, yet 77% said it would not influence their vote. Voters dislike betting in principle. They did not choose a president on it.

Investors are watching how it was done. Licences bought in good faith under a 2023 law were extinguished before Congress had voted, without compensation. Brazilian legal commentators have described that as a blow to legal certainty, and every boardroom considering Latin American investment has noticed.

My read: the ban holds in the near term. The realistic way out is Congress converting the measure into something stricter than the old regime, not a total prohibition: sports betting restored under tighter advertising, payment and player-protection rules. The window to shape that is the next four weeks.

Where the capacity goes next

Brazil built an enormous amount of infrastructure for its regulated market: platforms, payments, compliance teams, affiliates, sponsorships and people. Much of it is now looking for a home. Analysts have pointed to Colombia and Peru as the established markets best placed to absorb it. Suppliers are already moving: FIRST.bet, for one, is now targeting Mexico, Chile, Honduras, Venezuela and Ecuador.

I would put Venezuela on that list, and higher than most people expect.

Venezuela opened to the international industry in 2026, after more than a decade closed. The demand was already there: a country of 29 million people with around 6 million active wagerers, depositing close to $2.1 billion a year through domestic channels. SCCG Research puts gross gaming revenue at $165–250 million today and $500–700 million within five years.

Brazil teaches the other half of the lesson too. Size is not the same as stability. A market is only as investable as its rules are durable. Venezuela is writing its framework now, which is the moment operators, suppliers and payment providers can help build something that lasts, rather than inheriting something that can be switched off in 30 days.

Why we are taking the industry to Caracas

That is exactly why SCCG LATAM is organising the Venezuela Gaming Expo 2027, 27–29 April 2027 in Caracas: the first international gaming conference in Venezuela’s history. It will put the regulator, local operators and the international industry in one room while the rules are still being written.

If Brazil has you rethinking your 2027 plans for Latin America, I would welcome the conversation, and I would like to see you in Caracas.

Request your invitation to Venezuela Gaming Expo 2027 →

Sources: Superior Electoral Court (TSE) official result via JOTA, Agência Brasil and BNLData; Reuters, AP and Bloomberg on the challenge to the result; BNLData and iGB Brasil on MP 1.394/2026, the expired authorisations and the lawsuits; Receita Federal on federal betting revenue; SBC Noticias Brasil on the Nexus poll; JOTA and BNLData on legal certainty; NEXT.io and Yogonet on the regional shift; SCCG Research on Venezuela.