Kalshi Blocks Indian Users After Regulatory Pressure While European Authorities Coordinate Against Unlicensed Prediction Markets
Kalshi has updated its member agreement to block users in India from trading event contracts. The prediction markets company changed its member agreement dated June 17. Anyone who is domiciled, organized in, or located in the country can no longer trade on the platform.
The move reverses Kalshi’s October 2025 international expansion push when the company announced plans to serve users in more than 140 countries including India. It brings Kalshi’s list of restricted jurisdictions to 55 countries and territories. After eighteen years across iGaming and sportsbook operations the pattern is familiar. Platforms chase growth until local rules bite.
From Expansion to Exit
The June 17 amendment makes India a restricted jurisdiction under Kalshi’s member agreement. It bars users who are domiciled organized or located in the country from accessing event contract trading. The agreement also allows Kalshi to update the restricted-jurisdiction list in response to changes in legal regulatory or business conditions.
The company was still onboarding Indian customers as recently as mid-May. Its legal counsel Valeria Vouterakou said at the time that Kalshi had contacted the Indian government and had not received an order to shut down. She added that the platform would comply with any government requests should they make them.
Just weeks later the company could no longer ignore the requests and the enforcement action behind them. The reversal came fast. Kalshi had positioned itself as a compliance and regulation focused operator in an otherwise unconstrained sector. Its U.S. federal CFTC license does not shield it from national laws elsewhere.
How India Closed the Door
India’s Promotion and Regulation of Online Gaming Act 2025 led to the change in stance. The law which came into effect on May 1 significantly expanded restrictions on online gambling. Legal analysts have broadly concluded that prediction markets fall within its scope.
The statute carries criminal exposures including possible imprisonment for anyone who facilitates promotes or finances illegal online gambling. India’s Ministry of Electronics and Information Technology MeitY issued an advisory on April 25 warning VPN providers and other intermediaries that they must not enable access to blocked prediction market sites and betting platforms citing Polymarket and a few other similar sites.
Polymarket fell first as MeitY subsequently blocked the market around May 21. Kalshi’s withdrawal followed weeks later. The new online gaming ban in India largely scuppered these plans. It also pushed other gambling operators to withdraw including Flutter Entertainment which stopped all paid contests in its skill gaming subsidiary Junglee. That business was set to generate about $200 million in revenue for 2026.
From the supplier side this kind of regulatory ambiguity stalls commercial deals. Operators price in the overhead but prediction market platforms face steeper exposure when criminal penalties enter the picture.
Europe Following Suit
India’s clampdown is the latest move in an increasingly global pattern. Similar concerns are now emerging across Europe. Gambling regulators from nine European countries signed a joint declaration on June 17 committing to act together against prediction markets operating without a local license. Belgium France Germany Italy the Netherlands Poland Portugal Spain and Switzerland signed the declaration.
This is the first time European regulators have moved in such a coordinated fashion. The declaration came during the opening days of the FIFA World Cup which attracts huge betting interest. The regulators listed concerns such as the lack of account restriction tools including betting or time limits and light identity and age checks the risk of insider trading and the prospect of gambling harm among younger users.
France’s Autorité Nationale des Jeux ANJ led the European charge and warned that these platforms can create a significant addictive cycle. The regulators urged sports federations leagues and clubs to verify the status of any prediction market operator before signing commercial deals. They also laid out enforcement tools they could use including formal warnings fines ad restrictions and internet service provider level blocking.
Countries like Spain France the Netherlands and Belgium already block Polymarket and Kalshi through ISPs. The amendment leaves India among 55 jurisdictions where Kalshi users are prohibited from trading event contracts while regulators across Europe continue to explore coordinated enforcement against unlicensed prediction market operators.
Risks and Limitations of Global Expansion
The coordinated actions highlight real risks for prediction market operators. Criminal exposure in India sits alongside Europe’s focus on consumer protection gaps. Lack of betting limits light age checks and insider trading concerns give regulators clear targets. France’s ANJ emphasis on addictive cycles adds pressure on younger user cohorts.
Yet the moves also reveal limitations in enforcement. Kalshi held out until mid-May despite the Act taking effect on May 1. MeitY’s April 25 advisory targeted intermediaries but direct platform compliance still required weeks of back and forth. This lag between law enactment and operational exit creates uncertainty for users and commercial partners alike.
In my experience across European regulated markets operators adjust faster when penalties are clear. Here the mixed signals from initial government contact to eventual blocks leave platforms navigating gray zones longer than ideal. The $200 million revenue projection Flutter Entertainment walked away from in India shows the financial stakes involved.
The Bottom Line
Kalshi’s India retreat and the European joint declaration signal a tightening net for unlicensed prediction market activity. Operators must now weigh global reach against swift local enforcement that can erase expansion plans in weeks. Sports federations and leagues face new due diligence obligations before any commercial tie ups. The pattern suggests prediction markets will increasingly need jurisdiction specific licensing strategies rather than broad international rollouts. For those mapping sportsbook prediction market integration paths the coming months will test how quickly platforms adapt their compliance models to these coordinated regulatory signals. Industry participants should review tailored advisory support at https://sccgmanagement.com/our-services/ to align operations with evolving requirements.
