Huge Volumes and Paid Influencers Drive LA Mayoral Prediction Market Activity
Prediction markets on the Los Angeles mayoral race have seen massive trading volumes with Spencer Pratt at the center. Kalshi’s winner market alone has recorded over $78 million traded. Pratt peaked at a 26.3% implied chance before sliding to just over 1% as the results pointed toward Nithya Raman for second place.
Platforms and their paid promoters poured fuel on the fire. The activity highlights how prediction markets can amplify certain candidates through influencer campaigns. For gaming operators and sports tech partners this raises questions about liquidity creation, user acquisition costs, and what happens when real world outcomes diverge from heavy betting interest.
Pratt Dominates Betting Volumes
Kalshi’s main market on the LA mayor winner has seen over $78 million traded with around 75% of that volume on Pratt. The platform also ran related contracts including one on Pratt’s vote percentage that generated over $8 million in trading.
Polymarket showed similar concentration. Over 10 times as much was traded on Pratt (around $5.7 million) as on Karen Bass (around $529,000), who led the actual voting. These numbers demonstrate how a single narrative candidate can pull the bulk of liquidity even when polling and results suggest otherwise.
Prediction markets can create concentrated liquidity fast. That is useful for operators testing new verticals. It is also a reminder that volume alone does not equal accurate forecasting when external promotion is the main driver.
Prediction Markets Invest in Influencers
Pratt’s visibility came in part from paid social media influencers recruited by both Kalshi and Polymarket. The companies have spent significant sums on these campaigns to drive traffic to their markets.
Politico reported that Polymarket spent at least $350,000 on influencers between January 2025 and February 2026. That spend appears to have increased as the company relaunches in the US. The strategy mirrors performance marketing tactics long used in sports betting but applied here to political contracts.
After eighteen years across iGaming and sportsbook operations on the supplier and data infrastructure side I have seen similar paid acquisition loops. They deliver short term volume. The harder part is converting that traffic into users who stick around once the promoted event ends. Prediction platforms are learning the same retention math the books have lived with for years.
Kalshi Asks Promoters to Remove Posts
As Pratt’s odds collapsed many promoters questioned the election results. President Donald Trump posted on Truth Social that the election was “crooked.” Paid Kalshi promoters Matt Von Swol and Gunther Eagleman amplified doubts with direct references to the platform’s markets.
Eagleman posted “Is CA cheating to get Spencer Pratt out?” and followed up with “They’re stealing it, aren’t they?” Von Swol asked how every late vote could go against Pratt calling it “LITERALLY impossible.”
Dani Lever, a Kalshi spokesperson, told Semafor “We’ve asked these to be taken down, as they violate our affiliate marketing policies.” The promoters continued posting criticisms but removed direct Kalshi references.
This episode shows a clear risk for platforms. When you pay for promotion you cannot always control the tone once the market moves against the promoted outcome. The affiliate policy violation created extra reputational exposure on top of the lost bets.
Polymarket Promoters Keep Posting
Polymarket promoters continued to link to the platform while criticizing the vote count. One post from influencer Kangmin Lee noted “Notice how the mail-in ballots that come in last second always end up voting Democrat. Totally a coincidence, nothing to see here” with a link to the market. The platform does not appear to have objected.
Polymarket did sever ties with one influencer last week over separate accusations. The broader pattern is that paid promotion can extend beyond the event and keep controversy alive even after contracts settle.
A risk here is regulatory or public backlash. Heavy promotion tied to conspiracy claims could invite scrutiny from election officials or consumer protection bodies. Operators considering similar influencer plays in sports or politics verticals need clear guardrails on post-event messaging. The upside of cheap volume comes with downside in brand safety and potential compliance costs.
The Bottom Line
This LA mayoral case shows prediction markets can generate over $78 million in volume on a single local race when backed by paid influencer campaigns. The concentration on Pratt, the post-result complaints, and the mixed platform responses highlight both the opportunity and the operational risks. Gaming executives should watch how these dynamics translate to sports contracts where similar promotion tactics are already common. The real test will be whether the acquired users return for the next event or whether the model simply burns marketing dollars on temporary liquidity. World Cup 2026 will provide the largest scale stress test yet for these mechanics.
