Dutch Gambling Tax Hikes and Advertising Bans Risk Fueling Black Market Growth
Dutch gambling stakeholders gathered in Amsterdam this week to push back against restrictive policies they say are undermining the licensed market. Since re-regulating its online gaming market in 2021, the Netherlands has introduced higher gambling taxes and is now considering a full ban on gambling advertising. These moves, intended to protect players and boost treasury revenue, appear instead to be driving consumers toward illegal operators.
Key figures from FDJ United and the VNLOK trade body shared their concerns at the Gaming in Holland conference. The latest tax reforms raised rates in two phases, with the final increase setting the levy at 37.8% of GGR in January. Rather than filling government coffers, the changes have led to declining participation in the legal market.
Tax Increases Driving Player Migration
The higher tax burdens have translated directly into increased costs for consumers. Players have started leaving the legal Dutch market offer as a result. VNLOK revealed last year that 70% of all online licensed operators reported more than a quarter of their total GGR disappearing when compared to 2024.
This data followed the tax hikes. It underscores how policy decisions can produce unintended outcomes. From my perspective after decades observing regulatory shifts across jurisdictions, such measures often fail when they overlook the elasticity of player behavior.
Advertising Ban Proposals Add to the Pressure
Political discussions now center on a full ban on gambling advertising. This would mark a sharp turn from the current restriction that applies only to sports. Industry voices warn that further tightening the rules on licensed operators without targeting illegal ones will exacerbate the problem.
Björn Fuchs, VNLOK Chair, cautioned that meaningful regulation must place player protection first and be mindful of the consequences that harsh restrictions can help drive the influence of the black market further. “You need a holistic strategy in which regulation moves towards a system that protects the consumer and is based on proportionality and evidence, because if a policy fails, it is the consumer base that pays the price.”
Regulator and Operator Alignment on Risks
The Dutch regulator KSA stood out at the conference for its approachable stance. Ella Seijsener, KSA Director Licensing & Supervision, echoed industry concerns. She noted: “We have previously spoken out publicly against the total ban on advertising for online providers.”
Seijsener was also adamant that the KSA remains wary of proposals to limit the number of legal iGaming operators. This alignment between regulator and trade body signals a shared recognition of the challenges. Yet the broader political momentum appears headed toward even stricter controls.
Pascal Chaffard, Chief Online Betting and Gaming Officer at FDJ United, drove the point home. FDJ entered the Netherlands through the Unibet brand after acquiring Kindred. He concluded: “Every restrictive measure aimed at licensed operators that does not simultaneously address illegal operators makes the problem worse. The advertising ban, as currently proposed, risks accelerating the shift to illegal operators that everyone says they want to prevent.”
The Black Market Reality and Counterarguments
Chaffard added that the black market does not respect borders. He called for operators and regulators to leave the conference better aligned. “Let us leave this room not just better informed, but better aligned, because reclaiming this market is not something any operator or regulator can do alone.”
A key risk here is over-reliance on restriction without enforcement against illegal offerings. Critics might argue that advertising curbs and tax hikes protect vulnerable players regardless of market shifts. Yet the evidence from VNLOK suggests otherwise, with substantial GGR erosion already materializing. If policies continue to ignore this dynamic, the licensed sector’s competitiveness will erode further.
This situation highlights an inflection point for regulated markets. Harsh measures can inadvertently strengthen the very black market they aim to curb.
The Bottom Line
The Amsterdam gathering made clear that the Netherlands’ layered restrictions are pushing players toward illegal operators rather than delivering intended protections or revenue gains. With 37.8% tax rates and looming advertising bans, licensed client-partners face structural disadvantages that demand a more balanced, evidence-driven response. What to watch next is whether policymakers heed the calls from VNLOK, KSA, and operators like FDJ United for holistic strategies that target black market activity directly. Getting this balance right will determine if the licensed market can reclaim ground or continues to cede share.
