Gibraltar Positions Itself as Prediction Markets Hub with Selective Licensing Approach

Nigel Feetham, Minister for Justice, Trade and Industry for Gibraltar, sees a major opportunity in prediction markets. The British Overseas Territory has already licensed one platform, Predictstreet, in April. That operator quickly secured a deal as the official prediction market of the FIFA World Cup.

Feetham made his case during the Consensus 2026 cryptocurrency conference in South Beach, Florida. He is actively seeking more licenses even as Europe stays cautious and the topic sparks debate in the United States. From my perspective after eighteen years across iGaming and sportsbook operations on the supplier and data infrastructure side, this move looks like a calculated play to extend Gibraltar’s established model.

80% of bets placed in the United Kingdom are handled by servers in Gibraltar. The gambling industry generates nearly a third of the territory’s tax revenue. Feetham wants to build on that foundation.

Selective Licensing Over Volume

Feetham told Gambling Insider that Gibraltar prioritizes quality. “We’ve been very careful to do this, not just in gaming, but we’ve done it in other sectors as well. We would rather have quality over numbers,” he said.

He added, “So we don’t believe in issuing licences and making up numbers by allowing just anyone to come to Gibraltar and be licenced in Gibraltar.” A second licensed prediction market is expected within weeks. More should follow.

The approach mirrors how Gibraltar grew its insurance and traditional gambling sectors. An attractive tax rate and recent global compliance wins make it appealing. Feetham recently engaged with potential partners in Abu Dhabi, including former UK Prime Minister Tony Blair.

From the supplier side, this kind of regulatory clarity is what operators price into their expansion plans. Selective licensing reduces noise and builds credibility.

Gibraltar’s Track Record as a Regulatory Model

Gibraltar has hosted major gaming companies since 2001. Operators like bet365, William Hill, Ladbrokes, Entain and later Flutter Entertainment moved there after UK Chancellor Gordon Brown abolished the gambling tax. The burden shifted from bettors to companies, and Gibraltar offered better rates.

As of late 2025, 54 operators do business from Gibraltar, far less than Curacao (more than 600) or Malta (500+), drawn by a lesser 1% tax that caps at $425,000 GBP. Gibraltar has no VAT for marketing services or indeed any gambling related service.

“All the major gaming companies in the world are based in Gibraltar. It’s a huge ecosystem,” he said. “The fact that you’re regulated and licensed in Gibraltar gives you the credibility, and also in many cases, it gives you access either to a market or indeed to the possibility of getting a license based on the fact that you’ve got a Gibraltar license, which is the gold standard for most other jurisdictions.”

The territory removed itself from the FATF grey list in 2024 and the EU grey list in 2025. Feetham spearheaded those efforts. Under the Gambling Act of 2025 – which went into law last month – previous licensees must re-apply by October under stricter rules covering compliance, marketing and affiliate relationships.

Validation for Prediction Markets in a Gray Area

Prediction markets sit in a regulatory gray area across Europe. Feetham believes a Gibraltar license provides validation that platforms can build on. Licensure does not guarantee access to every market post-Brexit, but it helps.

He has a clear vision. “I’ve got a vision. I know I’m not making a mistake. We will be selective, and we will grow this in a responsible manner, in the same way as we’ve done it in other areas,” he said.

Gibraltar’s population is around 34,000. Its coding talent already supports insurance, traditional gambling and now peer-to-peer exchanges. The country of 6.7 square kilometers has turned its limestone promontory into a hub of the European digital economy.

Risks and Limitations of the Strategy

The selective approach carries risks. Prioritizing quality over speed could mean slower growth compared with higher-volume jurisdictions. Global skepticism around prediction markets will not vanish because of one or two Gibraltar licenses.

Post-Brexit realities limit seamless European access. Recent regulatory tightening under the Gambling Act of 2025 adds compliance costs that smaller entrants may struggle to meet. If the pipeline of serious applicants dries up, the vision stalls.

In my experience across European regulated markets, operators move faster when they see clear paths to multiple jurisdictions from a single license. Gibraltar’s gold standard status helps, but it is not a universal key. The counterargument is that rapid licensing in places like Curacao brought different problems that Gibraltar explicitly wants to avoid.

The Bottom Line

Gibraltar is doubling down on its hub status by extending its proven selective licensing model to prediction markets. Feetham is betting that credibility and a favorable tax package will attract serious players without compromising standards. For gaming executives and suppliers watching World Cup 2026, this is worth tracking. The real test will be whether the next wave of licensees can turn regulatory approval into meaningful liquidity and cross-border traction. Operators should assess early how a Gibraltar license might open doors or simply add another compliance layer to their global plans.