Brazil’s Cross-Party Bargaining and Lula’s Debt-Exclusion Agenda Set to Reset Online Gambling Licensing, Tax, and Market Access Ahead of October Elections
As election campaigning intensifies in Brazil, political blocs in Congress are bargaining to overhaul the country’s Bets Law. Just 17 months after it was enacted into law, the legislative framework that launched online gambling faces widespread criticism from ministers across ideological lines. President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva views gambling as predatory to his governing agenda and economic assistance programs for the poor.
This convergence of congressional momentum and Lula’s stated priorities signals a structural shift. The outcome will likely tighten rules on licensing, taxation, conduct, marketing, and who can participate in the market. Operators and their client-partners must prepare for a reset before the 4 October elections.
Bets Law Has No Friends
The Bets Law (No. 14,790/2023) was brought to life in 2019 by the Presidency of Michel Temer. It was rejected on final sign-off by President Jair Bolsonaro and the Liberal Party in 2023. Following a year of revisions, the PT government authorised the Bets Law in January 2025.
Yet the regime has invoked the wrath of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. Throughout his campaigning for the upcoming election, Lula pledged that he will table a new President’s Bill to ensure that debt is eliminated from Brazilian gambling, and that those on financial assistance are excluded from wagering. Lula has also committed to showing his hand on gambling reforms.
The President might be outdone by the bargaining of Congress’ political blocs to settle the matter by 4 October elections. In my experience across emerging markets, such rapid political realignment rarely leaves the original regulatory framework intact.
Bloc Party Momentum Builds
Momentum for the overhaul of Bets became more clear on 19 May. Ministers introduced two separate bills into Congress, both designed to rewrite different parts of the framework. The proposals – Bill No. 2,470/2026 and Bill No. 2,478/2026 – were filed in the Chamber of Deputies.
Both bills propose radical changes to the regulation of online betting. They focus on strengthening the protection of mental health, consumers, and the family economy. The texts also include guidelines for prevention and reduction of gambling-related harms, expanding the regulatory scope of the sector.
The Senate proposal is formed of ministers from parties spanning Brazil’s ideological divide, including Republicanos, The Workers Party, Liberal Party and Social Democrats. The Chamber initiative similarly drew support from parliamentarians with sharply different political instincts.
In the backdrop remains the Evangelical Caucus that has historically criticised gambling on moral grounds. Concerns over household indebtedness, consumer harm and financial vulnerability have expanded beyond traditional political divides.
Risk of Deeper Restrictions and Counterarguments
The proposals stop short of outright prohibition. Others do not. Pedro Uczai, a federal deputy from PT-SC, has proposed Bill No. 1,808/2026, legislation that would go substantially further by prohibiting betting operations and advertising, while dismantling elements of the current regulatory structure.
Uczai has argued that betting platforms have become “a permanent mechanism for capturing popular income”, intensifying household debt and financial instability. Senator Eduardo Girão’s Bill No. 1,018/2026 targets betting engagement tools including cashback offers, VIP programmes and gamification features.
Girão believes that gambling has caused “a scenario of profound social, economic and institutional concern”, requiring stronger state intervention. Senator Damares Alves continues to advance proposals seeking a nationwide gambling advertising ban that would significantly reshape sponsorship, media and customer acquisition strategies.
This raises a clear risk for operators. If the final bargain tilts toward the more restrictive bills, licensing costs could rise sharply while market access narrows. The counterargument from industry stakeholders has been that a balanced regime drives tax revenue and formalises what was previously gray-market activity. Yet with election pressures mounting, that perspective appears to carry limited weight in current negotiations.
Implications for Licensing, Tax and Market Access
The cross-party consensus points toward a tightened system of rules, conduct, marketing and licensing. This will shift the landscape of who can participate in the market. Lula’s debt-exclusion agenda aligns with these efforts, aiming to bar those on financial assistance from wagering.
For operators, the inflection point is clear. Tax structures, advertising permissions, and retention mechanics such as VIP programmes face direct challenge. The bargaining process will determine which political bloc succeeds in burying the Bets regime and ending Brazil’s first experience of a federal gambling regime.
As someone who has spent decades observing regulatory evolution in emerging markets, I see this as a defining moment. The speed of congressional alignment suggests operators should model multiple scenarios now rather than wait for post-election clarity.
The Bottom Line
Brazil’s political blocs are bargaining across traditional divides to overhaul the Bets Law, amplified by President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s debt-elimination and exclusion priorities. The resulting framework will likely impose stricter licensing, higher compliance burdens, constrained marketing, and tighter market access ahead of the 4 October elections. Operators and client-partners who treat this bargaining as a planning input—rather than a grievance—will be best positioned to navigate the reset. What remains to watch is which bills survive the final negotiations and how quickly a new regime can be implemented without driving activity back to unregulated channels.
