Europe’s Illegal Online Gambling Market Triples to €12bn in 2025 as Restrictive Policies Drive Growth, Euromat Study Finds

A new study commissioned by Euromat has found that Europe’s illegal online gambling market tripled since 2019 to reach €12bn in net revenue in 2025. This now equals 25% of the total online gambling sector. The research, carried out by Regulus Partners and Helios, is described as the most detailed analysis of unregulated online gambling in Europe to date, as reported by iGaming Future.

It examined 28 markets comprising the EU27 excluding Malta and Luxembourg, with the addition of the UK, Serbia and Montenegro. The black market is present in every jurisdiction reviewed, reaching as high as 80% of online gambling activity in some. The unregulated sector is projected to hit €13bn by 2026.

Mapping the Black Market’s Growth

The Euromat black market study draws on more than 1,000 hours of forensic analysis of digital marketing, web traffic data, macroeconomic factors and country-specific regulatory interventions. It identifies government policy as the central driver, with the illegal market growing fastest where rules are strictest. France’s illegal market is Europe’s largest, reflecting the scale of its economy and population alongside the breadth of current restrictions.

Structural contributors include monopolies and equivalent limits in Austria, Finland, Hungary, Poland and Slovenia; product bans in Cyprus, France, Germany and Poland; taxation that increases consumer prices in Austria, Croatia, Germany, Ireland, Poland and Portugal; and advertising curbs in Belgium, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands and Spain. The top 25 illegal operators account for around 64% of relevant traffic. Many such sites rely on cryptocurrencies both to bypass regulation and to supply products unavailable in legal channels.

Filip Jelavić, owner and project lead at Helios, said: “It’s clear that online gambling black markets don’t happen by accident but instead are the result of government policies that create consumer friction. In such an environment the key drivers are a combination of limited choice based on regulation and state monopolies, low visibility, distortions of price or value, as well as interventionist measures such as affordability checks – which block or inconvenience established consumer behaviour.”

Jason Frost, president of Euromat, said: “The illegal black market is a major concern for everybody who recognises the importance of a progressive and fairly regulated leisure and entertainment economy – whether it’s land-based or online. Unregulated black-market operators do not pay duties and taxes and with considerably lower overheads are able to promote better returns driving the migration from legal markets.” Frost noted that the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime views illegal gambling as a source of liquidity for organised crime groups.

The Risk of Counterproductive Regulation

Consumer protection policies can become counter-productive when they push engaged, higher-value customers toward the black market, where they face greater risk of harm or exploitation. The study makes clear that effective policy must balance consumer safeguards with adequate market access to prevent migration to unlicensed channels. For operators and regulators, the data signals that overly narrow frameworks simply shift volume to professionalised illegal platforms rather than eliminating demand. Future policy adjustments will need to address this dynamic directly if legal markets are to regain ground.

Reporting: iGaming Future

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