Polymarket 2026 US Open Markets Price Sinner at 36% and Sabalenka at 22% With $15.3 Million Volume
TL;DR — Polymarket’s 2026 US Open markets show over $15.3M volume with Sinner at 36%, Alcaraz 26%, Djokovic 6.3%, Sabalenka 22%, Swiatek 17% and Osaka 7.5%. Prices reflect 2026 hard-court records, recent injuries and prior Slam performance at Flushing Meadows.
SCCG Take — These markets efficiently price player availability and surface history, supplying operators with transparent signals on public valuation of tennis contenders.
The 146th US Open begins August 23 at Flushing Meadows. Polymarket offers winner markets for both singles titles that have generated over $15.3 million in cumulative volume, according to Casino.org News. Jannik Sinner and Aryna Sabalenka sit atop the respective men’s and women’s leaderboards, though recent injuries and form have shifted several prices and highlighted potential value.
Men’s Singles Pricing Adjusts on Injury Returns and Surface Records
Jannik Sinner trades at 36¢ for a 36% implied chance. He stands 44-3 in 2026 with a 93.6% win rate overall and 81.2% career success on hard courts. A knee complaint that caused his Cincinnati withdrawal, combined with prior best-of-five losses, pulled the price down from a peak of 59¢ on August 6.
Carlos Alcaraz holds 26¢ (26% chance). The defending champion has not played since defeating Otto Virtanen on April 14 and missed Roland Garros and Wimbledon with a right wrist injury. His explosive style relies on wrist snap that may require time to regain.
Novak Djokovic appears at 6.3¢ (6% chance). The 39-year-old owns an 82.5% career hard-court win rate and 95-15 record at Flushing Meadows. He has reached the semifinals in six of the last seven Slams and is projected as the fifth seed, delaying matchups against the top players.
Women’s Singles Market Widens With Hard-Court Pedigree in Focus
Aryna Sabalenka is priced at 23¢ for a 22% chance. All four of her major titles have come on hard courts, including two at the US Open. She has won 90.0% of hard-court matches in 2026 and has not lost in New York since the 2023 final, yet recent quarterfinal exits at the French Open and Wimbledon have compressed her probability from 51% in January.
Iga Swiatek sits at 18¢ (17% chance). The 25-year-old owns an 80.0% win rate at Flushing Meadows, won the 2022 title there, and posted 83.0% hard-court wins in 2026, including the National Bank Open title in Montreal.
Naomi Osaka trades at 7.5¢ (7% chance). A two-time US Open winner in 2018 and 2020, she has climbed from 0.4¢ after reaching the Wimbledon quarterfinals and the Bad Homburg final. Her current 13th ranking risks early draws against top seeds.
The reporting notes that these contracts often allow profitable exits as the tournament advances and prices respond to results and seedings.
Reporting: Casino.org News
Generated by SCCG’s automated editorial system from published source reporting. SCCG Management holds editorial responsibility.
Prediction markets are now real-time competitor intel—operators can benchmark public sentiment and surface inefficiencies traditional odds miss.
We've tracked regulated prediction markets and sportsbook convergence across 545 partnerships. When Polymarket moves $15M on a single event and bakes in injury timelines and surface stats this granularly, it's a signal: the crowd is pricing risk faster than many traditional books. That's actionable market intelligence.
- Sinner 36%, Alcaraz 26%, Djokovic 6.3%; Sabalenka 22%, Swiatek 17%, Osaka 7.5%
- Prices shifted on real-time injury news—Sinner fell from 59% after Cincinnati withdrawal
- $15.3M volume shows prediction markets now rival sportsbooks for liquidity on marquee events
SCCG angle: SCCG connects sportsbooks to the prediction-market infrastructure layer—exchange tech, liquidity partners, and compliance counsel in every regulated jurisdiction where these models are converging. We help operators decide whether to compete, integrate, or simply monitor these signals as competitive intel.
Gaming, betting and prediction markets — the desk’s read, every weekday.
Subscribe →