Will Europe Launch a New Macolin Convention After 2026 World Cup Prediction Market Surge?

Key Takeaways

• Record Activity: Prediction market trading surpassed $50 billion during the 2026 FIFA World Cup, with Kalshi alone seeing over $1 billion in final bets and these platforms swelling to 27% of all sports bets.
• Berset’s Critique: Council of Europe Secretary General Alain Berset called micro-betting an “open door to fraud” that the tournament widened, citing FIFA’s partnership with ADI Predictstreet and visible branding from Kalshi and Polymarket.
• Integrity Call: Berset urged FIFA to begin a “third half” building the integrity framework for the 2030 World Cup, referencing the 2019 Macolin Convention now adopted by 43 states.
• Regulatory Momentum: Gibraltar has licensed ADI Predictstreet and WagerWire and launched the first dedicated predictions framework, amplifying European debates on visibility and political influence.

What happens when a single global sporting event generates more than $50 billion in prediction market volume while platforms secure official stadium branding and high-profile partnerships? European authorities are moving quickly to define the answer.

The 2026 FIFA World Cup concluded on 19 July with Spain beating Argentina 1-0. Yet even before the final whistle, Alain Berset, Secretary General of the Council of Europe, had made clear his deep concerns about the scale of betting activity tied to micro-events and the growing role of prediction markets. According to reporting by SBC News, Berset described betting that now focuses on “every pass, every card, every corner” and warned that such activity “has moved from the result of a match to moments a single player can produce without changing the score.”

Berset further expressed alarm at political influence on the tournament, including US President Donald Trump’s reported call to FIFA President Gianni Infantino regarding a red card decision. These comments come as the Council of Europe, separate from the European Union and focused on rule of law, prepares to tighten oversight on international sport betting and predictions in the tournament’s aftermath.

Berset’s Warning on Fraud Risks and Prediction Market Visibility

Berset did not mince words. He remarked that betting “is an open door to fraud” and stated that “this World Cup has opened the door wider.” His specific objection centered on FIFA’s May partnership with ADI Predictstreet, a Gibraltar-licensed platform built on the blockchain solution from the UAE-based ADI Foundation. As an official partner, ADI Predictstreet branding appeared inside stadiums. When the firm aligned with Kalshi — a company valued at $22bn — that platform’s branding followed.

The visibility extended to Polymarket and its influencer partnerships, adding fuel to long-running European debates in markets such as the UK, Italy, Spain, Germany, and the Netherlands. SBC News notes these developments have layered new intensity onto questions of gambling advertising and integrity. Berset’s intervention signals that authorities view the convergence of traditional betting, micro-events, and prediction platforms as a structural shift requiring urgent attention.

How Prediction Markets Captured 27% of Sports Bets and $50 Billion in Volume

Corroborating coverage underscores the scale. Crypto Briefing reported that the World Cup final drove $50 billion in prediction market volume, with crypto platforms eclipsing traditional sportsbooks. Prediction markets swelled to 27% of sports bets during the tournament. TheLines.com separately highlighted that Kalshi World Cup final bets topped $1 billion.

These figures represent more than commercial success. They illustrate an inflection point where prediction markets, once peripheral, now command material share of wagering activity on major events. Gibraltar’s recent licensing of both ADI Predictstreet and WagerWire, coupled with its launch of the first jurisdiction-specific regulatory framework for predictions, further cements the sector’s momentum. Yet this growth has clearly heightened integrity concerns at the Council of Europe level, particularly around political markets and the potential for manipulation.

From an operator and investor perspective, the numbers confirm prediction markets’ competitive edge in distribution and focus. Traditional sportsbooks face pressure to adapt, while platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket benefit from high valuations and rapid scaling. The question is whether this commercial surge can coexist with the regulatory expectations now being articulated in Europe.

Learning from the Macolin Convention and the Call for a “Third Half”

The Council of Europe’s most significant prior intervention remains the 2019 Convention on the Manipulation of Sports Competitions, known as the Macolin Convention. Adopted by 43 states, it is regarded as one of the strongest frameworks for preventing match-fixing and safeguarding integrity. Berset is now invoking that precedent, calling on FIFA and others to “open the third half and the urgent work of strengthening the integrity of sport” before the 2030 tournament.

His language is deliberate. By framing the post-2026 period as a “third half,” Berset positions integrity work as an extension of the event itself rather than an afterthought. This approach links micro-betting risks, prediction market partnerships, and political influence into a single call for updated rules. The implication is clear: the existing Macolin architecture may need expansion to address the specific characteristics of prediction platforms and real-time event contracts.

Risks of Overreach and the Transatlantic Regulatory Gap

Any new regulatory push carries limitations and counterarguments. Overly prescriptive rules risk driving activity into less transparent jurisdictions or gray markets, particularly given the borderless nature of online prediction platforms. The Council of Europe’s focus on sport-specific integrity is understandable, yet the political markets offered by some platforms sit at the intersection of event contracts and broader speech considerations — an area where US regulatory politics continue to evolve.

What the combined coverage from SBC News, Crypto Briefing, Fortune, and TheLines.com underemphasizes is the capital markets dimension. With Kalshi valued at $22bn and significant volumes flowing through these platforms, investors are pricing in continued growth. A fragmented response — tighter European integrity rules on one side and ongoing US debates over CFTC jurisdiction on the other — could create compliance friction that slows legitimate innovation while failing to address core manipulation risks. This story therefore touches operational strategy for operators, competitive positioning for prediction specialists, and the need for smarter coordination across jurisdictions.

The Integrity Imperative for 2030 and Beyond

The 2026 World Cup has crystallized both the commercial promise and the integrity challenges of prediction markets. Berset’s intervention, grounded in the Macolin precedent, suggests European authorities will not wait passively for the next tournament. Operators and platforms should treat this as a prompt to engage proactively on standardized integrity tools, transparent reporting, and clear separation between micro-betting risks and legitimate prediction activity.

For client-partners navigating this landscape, the signal is to invest in compliance infrastructure now rather than react later. The convergence of sports, media, and event-based trading is real; the regulatory frameworks designed to protect it must evolve in tandem. Those who anticipate the “third half” will be best positioned as the global conversation moves toward 2030.

Learn more about SCCG Management’s advisory work in LATAM and emerging regulatory environments.