Today SCCG Management launches the SCCG Prediction Markets Newsletter.
For thirty years I have worked alongside operators, regulators, suppliers, and capital partners across the global gambling industry. In that time I have seen plenty of new categories emerge, and a few of them reshape the industry entirely. Prediction markets are one of those few.
Polymarket and Kalshi together processed more than $45 billion in volume in 2025. US sports betting handle has exceeded $150 billion. Sports event contracts now account for the majority of Kalshi’s trading activity. Federal preemption fights are landing in the Sixth Circuit. State legislatures are reaching for criminal statutes. The CFTC is filing counter-suits.
The convergence between regulated sports betting and federally regulated prediction markets is no longer a thesis. It is the operating reality of the industry. And nobody is covering it end-to-end in one place. Until today.
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Why now
Each week brings developments that matter for how this industry is going to be built. A regulator in Minnesota signs the first state-level criminalization of prediction markets. A federal judge in the Sixth Circuit signals skepticism toward federal preemption claims. Farm groups file a CFTC submission warning of distortion in commodity hedging. The NFL writes the CFTC asking for restrictions on manipulable contracts. Polymarket signs Lazio for a $22 million shirt sponsorship while Italy’s regulators continue to block consumer access to the platform itself.
Each of these stories matters individually. But the pattern they form together is what operators and regulators need to be reading. This newsletter exists to surface that pattern with the same connector-first lens we bring to our advisory work at SCCG.
Who this is for
Operators pricing risk across regulated sportsbook and federally regulated event contract venues. Regulators tracking federal-state preemption questions, integrity signals, and cross-platform manipulation patterns. Capital allocators watching how policy decisions reshape competitive dynamics across the gambling and prediction markets sectors. Industry counsel, tribal gaming leaders, and the suppliers building the infrastructure all of the above depend on.
If you are part of the global gambling industry that SCCG has spent three decades connecting, this newsletter is built for you.
What you get
A curated brief covering what actually moved across prediction markets, sportsbooks, federal and state regulators, and the litigation calendar shaping the industry. No promotional content. No filler. No press release reposts. Just the intelligence operators, regulators, and capital allocators need to read together to see the pattern.
The inaugural issue ships today. It covers the Minnesota criminalization signed by Governor Walz, the Tennessee Sixth Circuit appeal, the National Pork Producers Council’s CFTC filing on commodity hedging risk, Dana White’s letter to President Trump on sportsbook tax treatment, Kalshi’s UFC sponsorship deals, and Polymarket’s Serie A and Lazio partnerships.
It also features the inaugural Tater Research case study, the empirical companion to this newsletter and to the broader thesis: markets don’t predict. They process.
The bottom line
SCCG has spent three decades building bridges across the global gambling industry. The next chapter of this industry will be written at the intersection of prediction markets, sportsbooks, and the regulatory frameworks that govern both. The SCCG Prediction Markets Newsletter is built to keep our industry connected as that chapter unfolds.
Subscribe below. The inaugural issue is in your inbox shortly after.
Join the SCCG Prediction Markets Newsletter
Free. Straight to your inbox. Unsubscribe anytime.
Stephen Crystal is the Founder and CEO of SCCG Management, the gambling industry’s global connector. Reach Steve at [email protected].
