All Betters Die Broke
By Garrison Russell
When you go up to the craps table you’ll notice that over 95% of the bets are made on the Do side of the table such as pass line, come and place bets. Very few players play on the Don’t side of the table even though the odds favor the Don’t bettor. Out of the 36 commendations on a set of dice there’s only three ways to roll the four and 10, four ways to roll the five and nine, five ways to roll the six and eight and six ways to roll the seven. It is not a question of if the seven is going to be rolled, it is a question of when the seven’s gonna be rolled.
When you flip a coin 100 times it’s going to land approximately 50% heads (Pass line) and 50% tails (Don’t pass). By using logic, common sense and basic math you know the game of craps is approximately 50/50. So why do over 95% of the players only bet on the Do side of the table? It’s because they haven’t been taught the advantages of betting on the Don’t side. The casinos want the players to only bet on the Do side because they know the odds are in the casino’s favor with the all-powerful seven.
There are basically three bets the Don’t bettor can make: The Don’t pass line, Don’t come bets and lay bets. Once those bets go into effect they favor the Don’t bettor. For some reason, if the shooter sees a player making a bet on the Don’t side they have a tendency to think it’s bad luck. Remember, the house is on the Don’t side all day long and you never hear the shooter yelling at the dealers, “Oh, you’re on the Don’t side, you’re ruining my game.” It is all superstition and mumbo-jumbo. Once your Don’t bet goes into play the odds are in your favor.
There is a term in mathematics called the Law of Large Numbers. Professor Michael Starbird from the University of Texas explains if you are at the table for 200 games there is a 99.9% probability that five of those games will either be Do or Don’t in succession. You have a 96% chance that six of those games will be either Do or Don’t in succession. You have to chart the table and bet accordingly. Go with the flow and the energy of the dice. When you are playing at a Don’t or choppy table don’t be afraid to make some bets on the Don’t side.
There’s a very famous saying in the game: “All Right Bettors Die Broke.” If you don’t feel comfortable making a Don’t pass line bet before the game starts, make a Don’t come bet after the game starts. Most players won’t even know that the bet has been made. That Don’t come bet goes behind the number. Now you just wait for the seven and you can hedge that bet. Why do you think the Don’t come box is so small but the Come section takes up half the table? The casinos don’t really want a lot of players making Don’t come bets because once that bet goes into effect, the odds switch over to the Don’t bettor. Remember: to lose a Don’t bet, the shooter has to roll the number twice. Once to establish the Don’t bet and then it has to be rolled again for you to lose. All you need is one seven to win. Another advantage is that Don’t come bets work on that come out roll, so when you roll the seven on the come out roll you win all your Don’t come bets. If you’re a dice setter this can be a big advantage on the come out roll.
When you are setting the dice from the Don’t side there are two dice sets that can put the odds in your favor. You can set the dice and have four ways to roll the seven (or win in your case); only one way to roll the 4, 6, 8 and 10; and zero ( yes zero) ways to roll the 5 and 9. Your odds are now 4 to1 or 4 to 0 in your favor. When the dice roll randomly you have six ways for the seven. These are some of the best odds you will ever get at the craps table. I know from experience that less than 5% of the players know these dice sets and use them when they’re playing.
Recently we were playing in Las Vegas at a local casino. We were playing on the Don’t side and making Don’t come bets. We then set the dice to seven out. We won our Don’t pass line bet and ALL of our Don’t come bets on just one roll. We won eight out of nine games, which is a return on investment of 88%. It is very hard to win eight out of nine games on the Do side—try it sometime. The longer the game goes on the odds that a seven will be rolled increases. On the first roll you have a 16.67% chance of rolling a seven, which is six out of 36 combinations. By the fifth roll the odds are a 59.81% chance a seven will be rolled, and by the time you get to 10 rolls there’s an 83.85% chance that the seven will be rolled.
Another myth is “Always lay the maximum odds” on your Don’t bet. My question is, WHY?
After your Don’t bet goes into play they have to pay you a 100% return on investment. You have the house against the wall. The more odds you lay the less your return on investment. They say you are getting a lower house edge—who cares? You’re not playing for a lower house edge, you’re playing for money and a higher return on your investment and there is no house edge on a losing bet. When playing you should have no loyalty to either side of the table, your loyalty should be to win money.
Mr. Max Odds bets $15 on the Don’t pass line bet and the point is four or 10 and then lays $30 odds. He has $45 on the table. When he wins, they pay him $15 (100%) on his Don’t pass line bet and they only pay him $15 (50%) for his odds bet. Max Odds bet $45 to win $30. That is a return on investment of only 66.6%. When you don’t lay odds they have to pay you “dollar for dollar,” which is a return on investment of 100%. Most mathematicians will tell you a return of 100% is always better than a return of 66.6%. Play and win for a higher return on investment (ROI). I’ve never gone to the cashier’s cage and had them say: “You know, Garrison, since you were playing for a lower house edge we’re going to pay more money.” The only thing they ask is how much money do you have in chips because that’s what we’re going to pay you.
When playing craps you have to utilize all parts of the table and go with the flow and the energy of the table. Remember, approximately 50% of the shooters will make their point and win and 50% of the shooters will seven out. Don’t be afraid to take a walk on the wild and the dark side of the table. If more players played this way the casinos would win less money.
For additional information, watch the show on YouTube, All Right Bettors Die Broke. I wish you the very best for the New Year. Good luck at the tables! ´
Garrison lives in Las Vegas, is a teacher and the author of the Platinum Craps & Dice Setting book on Amazon at www.platinumcraps.com. Youtube shows: Garrison Craps. Email: garrisoncraps@gmail.com. Office: 702-487-5223; Cell/text 702-772-6011.
- SCCG Management. The Gambling Industry’s Global Connector. Access Here.
- Source: https://www.casinocenter.com/the-dark-side-of-craps/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=the-dark-side-of-craps
