AGA Survey Shows 82 Percent of Americans Back Gambling Regulation for Prediction Markets
An AGA poll of 2,268 adults found 82% support regulating prediction markets as gambling, with bipartisan backing of 84% Democrats, 82% Republicans and 90% independents. This exceeds a March poll showing 59% in favor. States have lost over $1.66 billion in taxes since late 2025 due to unregulated operations.
SCCG Take — This poll supplies regulators and operators concrete evidence of public demand for uniform gambling rules, closing the tax and oversight gaps that favor unlicensed platforms.
New polling from the American Gaming Association, as reported by Casino.org, reveals that 82 percent of U.S. adults believe prediction markets should be regulated as gambling products rather than financial investments. The survey of 2,268 adults found 84 percent of Democrats, 82 percent of Republicans and 90 percent of independents in agreement on this point.
Bill Miller, president and CEO of the American Gaming Association, said: "In an era of political division, Americans are overwhelmingly united against deceptive marketing of sports gambling as investing." Three in four adults think trading sports events on a prediction market is fundamentally the same as betting on a sportsbook. The study used Qualtrics software and carries a margin of error of plus or minus two points.
Public Views on Prediction Markets Shift Further Toward Gambling
The latest results reflect growing acceptance of this framing. A March poll found 61 percent of adults viewed purchasing event contracts on prediction markets as closer to gambling than investing. In that survey 59 percent agreed these platforms should face gambling-style regulation.
Billions in State Tax Revenue at Stake as Opposition Hardens
The American Gaming Association contends that prediction market platforms offer illegal sports betting outside state and tribal frameworks. These operations pay no state taxes on platform revenue. Some sports bettors have migrated to the exchanges as a result.
The AGA estimates states have lost more than $1.66 billion in tax revenue since prediction markets began offering back-door sports betting in late 2025. Platforms claim peer-to-peer trading without taking a side. In practice the other side often involves institutional trading firms such as Susquehanna International Group, which generated $22.1 billion in revenue in 2025.
This consistent public signal across party lines highlights the competitive distortion created by uneven oversight. Licensed operators and state regulators now have fresh data to press for clearer boundaries that match how the public already sees these products.
Gaming, betting and prediction markets — the desk’s read, every weekday.
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