JP Morgan Lifts Aristocrat Leisure 2027 EBITDA Forecast on North American Unit Growth and Interactive Share Gains
JP Morgan raised its Aristocrat 2027 adjusted EBITDA forecast by 3.7% to AUD2.86 billion, citing larger North American machine installations and interactive revenue acceleration. The move follows fiscal 2026 results that beat expectations on units, pricing and U.S. online slot share.
SCCG Take — The upgrade signals sustained earnings momentum from Aristocrat’s land-based installed base and digital market share gains, giving operators and investors clearer 2027 visibility.
JP Morgan has raised its forecast for Aristocrat Leisure Ltd’s adjusted EBITDA for the financial year ending September 30, 2027 by 3.7 percent to nearly AUD2.86 billion (US$1.94 billion). The revision is anchored in expectations of a larger installed base of gaming machines and faster revenue expansion at Aristocrat Interactive.
The updated figure implies an 8.8 percent increase from the AUD2.64 billion reported for the financial year ended September 30, 2026. JP Morgan also increased its forecast for 2027 net profit after tax and before amortisation by 2.6 percent to AUD1.73 billion.
Gaming Segment Momentum
The brokerage’s analysts Don Carducci, George Stewart and Louis Loader noted that Aristocrat Gaming will receive a full year of earnings from machines installed during the prior financial year. The supplier added 6,500 units to its North American gaming operations installed base in the 12 months to September 30, 2026. Both the net additions and the average daily fee of US$53.93 per unit exceeded expectations.
New cabinets and titles, including additions to the Monopoly range, are projected to support continued installations.
Interactive and Social Performance Drivers
At Aristocrat Interactive the analysts expect growth from wider distribution of online casino content, expansion of iLottery contracts and greater platform utilization. The company’s share of the U.S. online slot market more than doubled to 8.0 percent between June and September. The planned early 2027 online launch of the Dragon Link title is cited as a step toward the division’s US$1 billion revenue target for the financial year ending September 2029.
Product Madness recorded margins above 50.0 percent as direct-to-consumer sales reached 30.0 percent of social casino revenue. Group cash conversion weakened, with gross operating cash flow as a share of EBITDA falling to 85.0 percent from 94.0 percent a year earlier due to higher inventories and receivables. Recovery of AUD45 million in legal costs related to Light & Wonder provided a partial offset. As reported by GGRAsia these operational results underpin the raised projections.
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