Vanderbilt Team Flags Oddly Timed Six-Figure Trades on Polymarket Michigan and Nebraska Senate Markets

Researchers at the Vanderbilt Institute of National Security have examined two six-figure trades on Polymarket tied to Abdul El-Sayed’s victory in the Michigan Senate race and a separate bet on Pete Ricketts’ re-election in Nebraska. The activity occurred in the hours before key polls became public. Notional volume on the Michigan contest exceeded $13.7 million, including more than $7.9 million wagered on the eventual winner.

As first reported by the New York Times, the trades prompted scrutiny from a Vanderbilt team co-led by Brett Goldstein. Goldstein told the Times there are circumstances that are hard to dismiss as coincidence. The same user also placed large positions on Kalshi. Polymarket said it spotted the trades immediately; Kalshi declined comment.

Precise Timing Preceding Polls

Roughly one hour before a New York Times–Siena College poll went public on Halloween, an anonymous account placed nearly $200,000 on Ricketts when his implied win probability stood near 67 percent. The trader later netted more than $77,000. In the early morning hours, the same user executed a $349,135 position on El-Sayed at 3:27 a.m. and a $273,473 bet on a Democratic win at 5:20 a.m., the latter placed 15 hours before the next Siena poll.

At the time of the El-Sayed trades, he trailed on generic ballots by 6 percent in September polling. The final pre-election Siena survey showed an 11-point lead. The positions stood to return roughly $180,000 if the Republican lost. Both candidates ultimately prevailed by six-point margins, with El-Sayed leading by more than 300,000 votes and Ricketts ahead by roughly 47,000.

Blockchain Review Questions Insider Narrative

An on-chain analysis by theBlock.co pushed back on the suggestion of material non-public information. The user maintains a documented history of large, risky trades and engages in complex DeFi yield-farming strategies that generate passive income on crypto assets. The trader held the positions through Election Day rather than exiting quickly, consistent with a risk-tolerant approach rather than short-term information trading.

El-Sayed has expressed skepticism toward prediction markets. In March he responded to a Polymarket contract on nuclear proliferation by writing, “I just thought online gambling was a problem because it rots brains and destroys folks’ lives. Now it’s a national security threat, too!?” The Vanderbilt review forms part of a wider effort to monitor prediction market activity across the 2026 midterms.