Kalshi Market Makers Gain $34.9 Million on Midterm Election Markets While Takers Lose $44.6 Million

Kalshi market makers netted $34.9 million in profits from midterm election contracts as takers lost $44.6 million after fees. Two Texas statewide races delivered the largest share of those gains for makers and corresponding losses for takers. Millions more shifted in makers' favor on House and Senate control markets plus Senate contests in Michigan and Maine, according to an InGame analysis.

The results add a data point to debates over prediction market performance relative to polls and models during the midterms. While the markets overall showed success in forecasting outcomes, the typical Kalshi user on the taker side proved less accurate than the market makers providing liquidity.

Texas Races Produce Largest Maker Wins

Takers lost $13.6 million before fees on the Texas Senate market, where Democrat James Talarico defeated Ken Paxton, for a $15.3 million loss after fees. The Texas governor market saw takers lose $10.8 million before fees, or $11.7 million after, as Democratic challenger Gina Hinojosa defeated incumbent Greg Abbott. Block trades on the governor race, all backing Abbott, may have contributed to the imbalance.

These Texas outcomes ranked among the biggest maker wins tracked by InGame. The Senate market was the largest non-sports maker gain since the start of 2026. House control cost takers $5.3 million before fees, Senate control another $3.6 million before fees, with additional losses of $3.2 million and $1.8 million before fees on the Michigan and Maine Senate races respectively.

Exceptions appeared in South Carolina, where takers gained $3.3 million before fees on an upset Senate result, and in Florida, where takers netted $2.9 million before fees on the governor race. Several markets remain open, including Alaska and Mississippi Senate contests with nearly $40 million traded each.

Election Drives Record Kalshi Volume

Combined with a busy sports calendar, the midterms produced a record week for Kalshi with $29.7 billion in total volume through November 9. Politics generated $965.5 million of that total. The platform collected $134.5 million in trading fees for the week, including $4.4 million from politics. Political parlays with at least one non-sports leg saw takers lose $1 million net, or 19.6 percent of stakes.

Platform Implications for Liquidity Providers

These maker gains against takers during a high-profile election cycle highlight the edge held by professional liquidity providers in prediction markets. With Kalshi expanding political offerings and parlay products, platforms must track whether retail participation remains sustainable when losses concentrate in this manner. The pattern observed here could shape how operators calibrate fees, block trade rules, and user protections ahead of future national contests.