Kalshi Records Two Large Block Trades on Cincinnati Bearcats NCAA Qualification

Two block trades on Kalshi each purchased 125000 YES contracts for the Cincinnati Bearcats to qualify for the 2027 NCAA men's basketball tournament at 74 cents. The trades were identified in a report from market surveillance firm BETINT.

Each trade cost $92500 for a combined $185000. A successful outcome returns $250000 to the YES side while the NO side retains $65000 if Cincinnati falls short. The trades executed 19 minutes apart at 244 p.m. and 303 p.m. ET opening new positions that raised open interest to 250065 contracts.

Prior activity had been minimal with only 39 contracts traded in six weeks. These blocks account for 95 percent of all volume across the 126 listed teams. They priced below the public market where the last non-block trade occurred at 82 cents. Kalshi currently lists an 82 percent chance of qualification.

Prior Sports Block Trades on Kalshi

BETINT has recorded nine sports block trades since July 27 with approximately $1.38 million on the bought side. All centered on a single team. Five blocks on LSU football placed within 72 seconds could pay $3 million if the Tigers win the national title matching coach Lane Kiffin's bonus. InGame previously reported those were executed by a third party assisting teams with bonus hedging.

Additional blocks included a $481000 YES position on the Houston Astros to win the 2026 World Series placed by Jim Mattress Mack McIngvale which lost and a NO block on the South Carolina Gamecocks reaching eight wins this season. Block trades are negotiated off exchange and limited to financial institutions regulated insurers investment funds and entities exceeding $10 million in assets.

Unresolved Questions on Cincinnati Trade Parties

No specific party has been tied to the Cincinnati blocks. The identical terms fit one buyer splitting an order or a broker filling two clients according to BETINT. Kalshi does not disclose block trader identities. BETINT co-founder and chief intelligence officer Dan Zimmermann said It looks like the expanded NCAA tournament has its first big prediction market customer. I know that this is far from the last block trade we will see in sports.

The firm states no wrongdoing is alleged and notes reported times can lag actual agreements by up to 15 minutes. While tournament bonuses appear in many coaching contracts Cincinnati head coach Jerrod Calhoun receives a $100000 bonus for qualification per 247Sports below the $250000 payout here. The market views qualification as likely making any hedge more expensive.