Genius Sports Lifts 2026 Revenue Guidance Above $1 Billion on Prediction Markets Deals

Genius Sports has raised its revenue and EBITDA expectations for 2026 after signing partnerships with Kalshi and Polymarket in Q3 and narrowing its quarterly net loss.

The company's year-to-date net loss reached $147.9 million, up 62% from $90 million the year prior. The Q3 net loss marked an improvement of 45.5% from $15.7 million to $28.8 million. Much of the elevated loss ties to the $1.2 billion acquisition of sports media business Legend completed earlier this year.

Prediction Markets Momentum

Q3 brought deals with the two largest prediction markets platforms globally. Kalshi secured a $40 billion valuation last week. Genius Sports also launched Prediction.com, a dedicated prediction markets comparison site.

The company intends to leverage its data from partners including the Premier League and National Football League. Mark Locke, Genius Sports Founder and Chief Executive Officer, said the moves align with 25 years of infrastructure development.

“Our predictable betting business, expanding bedia capabilities and growing opportunities in prediction markets position us to capture greater value from the data, technology and infrastructure we have spent 25 years building,” Locke stated.

Financial and Operating Results

Leadership expects to close 2026 with revenue in the range of $1.015 billion-$1.035 billion and adjusted EBITDA between $287 million-$297 million. Q3 group-wide revenue rose 62.3% to $269.9 million while EBITDA increased 156.4% to $87.1 million. Year-to-date revenue totaled $653.3 million, up 52.3% from $429 million, with EBITDA at $163.7 million, up 86.2% from $87.9 million.

The Media Technology, Content and Service division recorded the strongest growth margins. Q3 revenue in that unit rose 33.4% to $152.9 million. The Betting Technology, Content and Services unit saw Q3 revenue increase 62.3% to $269.9 million. The company generated $54 million in free cash flow during the quarter.

As reported by SBC News, Locke added that Legend is creating additional commercial value and the combined business is delivering the expected cash-generating performance.