DraftKings Q3 Revenue Climbs 16 Percent to $1.33 Billion on Predictions Volume Surge
DraftKings Q3 revenue rose 16% to $1.33B with 13% payer growth and margin expansion, though it missed estimates and posted a $316.9M EBITDA loss. Predictions annualized volume hit $56.8B. 2027 guidance projects $7.35-7.75B revenue, up 17% at midpoint, with material Predictions contribution.
SCCG Take — Predictions scales at speed yet demands heavy 2026 investment of $650-700M, funded by core cash flow. This frames the trade-off between near-term EBITDA dilution and longer-term product diversification for operators.
DraftKings reported third-quarter 2026 revenue of $1.33 billion, up 16 percent from $1.14 billion a year earlier. Monthly unique payers increased 13 percent to 4.1 million while average revenue per payer rose 3 percent to $109. Sportsbook net revenue margin expanded to 5.6 percent from 5.2 percent, according to World Casino News.
The company recorded an Adjusted EBITDA loss of $316.9 million. Revenue missed analyst estimates of roughly $1.39 billion, and adjusted loss per share was $0.53 versus an expected $0.25 loss. Sportsbook and Predictions consumer volume totaled $13.9 billion in the quarter, up 22 percent year-on-year, while combined revenue grew 31.5 percent to $784 million. iGaming revenue rose 2.1 percent to $460.9 million.
Predictions Platform Hits Material Scale
“The third quarter marked a pivotal moment for DraftKings, as the Predictions offering we have been building is now powering meaningful growth for our business,” said Jason Robins, DraftKings’ Chief Executive Officer and Co-founder. More than 1.6 million customers engaged with Predictions year-to-date. Annualized total trading volume reached $56.8 billion by October after fivefold growth from July, with consumer volume at $10.1 billion. The product posted an 11.1 percent take rate and captured 65.6 percent of gross revenue. October annualized run-rate adjusted gross profit reached $350 million at an 18 percent promotion rate.
2026 Investment Weighs on Guidance While 2027 Projects Core Expansion
DraftKings now expects full-year 2026 revenue between $6.35 billion and $6.55 billion with Adjusted EBITDA of $175 million to $275 million. The outlook includes $650 million to $700 million in Adjusted EBITDA investment in Predictions, of which $175 million to $225 million falls in the fourth quarter. Management anticipates Predictions revenue will remain immaterial in 2026 as promotions offset most gross revenue.
For 2027 the company guided revenue of $7.35 billion to $7.75 billion, a 17 percent increase at the midpoint, and Adjusted EBITDA of $800 million to $1.0 billion that includes $300 million of Predictions investment at the midpoint. Core business Adjusted EBITDA is projected at $875 million to $925 million for 2026. Shares fell 23 percent to $18.08 after the release.
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