Super Group Cuts 2026 Revenue Guidance to $2.52-2.57 Billion After Q3 Sportsbook Volatility
Super Group now expects annual revenue of between $2.52 billion and $2.57 billion, compared with its previous forecast of more than $2.6 billion. Its adjusted EBITDA guidance has been revised to $700 million to $720 million, replacing an earlier projection exceeding $710 million. Africa accounted for 43% of $606 million in reportable segment revenue, generating $262 million with 17% year-on-year growth.
SCCG Take — Regional diversification and casino balance mitigate sportsbook swings for operators. The share reaction to the buyback highlights investor focus on cash strength and African momentum over the guidance cut.
Super Group has lowered its full-year 2026 revenue guidance to between $2.52 billion and $2.57 billion, from a prior expectation of more than $2.6 billion. Adjusted EBITDA guidance is now set at $700 million to $720 million, revised from above $710 million. The changes follow third-quarter results that showed sports betting pressure despite casino strength and African growth, as reported by Yogonet International.
Quarterly revenue reached $611 million, an 11% drop from the second quarter's $684 million but a nearly 10% increase from the same period in 2025. Adjusted EBITDA fell to $165 million from $204 million quarter-over-quarter yet rose 8% year-on-year. Profits grew 15% sequentially and more than 48% annually.
Africa Fuels Growth Amid Sports Weakness
The African market represented 43% of the $606 million reportable segment revenue, delivering $262 million in the third quarter. This marked 17% year-on-year growth, outpacing the international segment's 5% rise. Casino operations added $20 million in iGaming revenue within the international segment, countering a $3 million decline in sportsbook revenue.
Menashe attributed pressure to “customer-friendly sports results” while highlighting casino's role. “Casino provides a durable earnings base that allows us to absorb short-term sports volatility,” he stated. He also cited “strong profitability across Africa.”
Buyback Program Underlines Liquidity Strength
Super Group initiated a $150 million share repurchase program on October 30, set to run for 14 months. With $602 million in cash and minimal debt as of September 30, the company maintains flexibility for organic and strategic investments, according to CFO Alinda van Wyk.
The announcement drove shares up more than 7% over five days, with an additional 3% gain post-earnings. This comes after an approximate 13% decline in the stock over the previous six months.
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