Prediction Markets Set October Records with 55% Volume Surge to $4.13 Billion on Sports Event Strength
Jefferies reports prediction market ADV surged 55% to record $4.13B in October with open interest at $3.27B. Sports held 78% volume share amid NFL and college football seasons; Polymarket led at 17% while Rothera reached 1.2%. Non-sports ADV also rose 55% to $843M.
SCCG Take — Sports-driven records favor platforms with strong combo offerings and point to sustained seasonal tailwinds. Operators must weigh non-sports diversification against pending regulatory outcomes in contested jurisdictions.
Prediction markets reached new highs in October as average daily volume jumped 55% month-over-month to $4.13 billion. Open interest rose 45% to $3.27 billion. The increases aligned with the acceleration of college football, NFL play, and the start of the 2026-27 NBA season.
As reported by Casino.org, Jefferies analyst Daniel Fannon detailed the figures in a client note. Leading platforms captured most of the growth, yet smaller operators including Rothera displayed momentum.
Platform Results Show Concentration with Some Diffusion
Polymarket recorded $655 million ADV, up 50% month-over-month and 395% year-over-year, for 17% of tracked market share. Other platforms generated $309 million ADV, up 56% month-over-month, holding approximately 7% share. Rothera, the Robinhood Markets and Susquehanna International Group joint venture that launched in June, posted $49 million ADV for 1.2% of industry volume.
Fannon observes: “Polymarket had $655M ADV (+50% m/m; +395% y/y) as its ADV mkt share was 17% of the platforms that we track (flat m/m). Other platforms that we track had $309M ADV (+56% m/m; +710% y/y), with mkt share flat m/m at ~7%. Rothera, which launched in June, had $49M in total ADV (+55% m/m), representing 1.2% of industry ADV (vs 1.5% in September).”
Sports Derivatives Retain 78% Share as Combos Rise on Weekends
Sports ADV climbed 55% to $2,978 million while retaining 78% market share. Non-sports ADV also rose 55% to $843 million. Sports open interest share expanded to 83% from 73% in September. Combo activity increased on weekends, consistent with sports-focused trading, lifting products such as DraftKings' DKeX.
What the Records Reveal for Market Structure
The figures confirm sports event contracts remain the primary driver even as non-sports categories post parallel gains. Post-election focus may shift further toward cryptocurrency and financial contracts. Operators and investors will track whether this October momentum holds once major sports calendars ease, particularly if regulatory actions in key states introduce new friction.
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