ASIC Chair Sarah Court Equates Prediction Markets to Betting, Closing Door for Retail Access in Australia

The Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC) has taken a firm stance against prediction markets for retail clients. In a blog post, Sarah Court, Chair of ASIC, stated the regulator “is not currently convinced that prediction markets for retail clients are in the public interest.”

“Prediction market contracts have all the features of a bet,” Court said. She added that the event contracts offered by these platforms often “have nothing to do with investment,” specifically citing sporting results as the prime example. These features raise questions about whether such contracts qualify as investment products.

Global Regulatory Contrast on Prediction Markets

Court’s comments highlight the central dilemma: are prediction markets a form of gambling or legitimate financial tools? In the US, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has backed operators including Kalshi, Polymarket, Crypto.com and Robinhood. Kalshi carries a valuation of over $40bn (£29.8bn), yet Arizona and Utah have filed criminal charges against it.

Gibraltar became the first jurisdiction to differentiate prediction markets from gambling. Smaller regimes in Tobique, Canada, and Nevis in the Caribbean have followed. In Europe the picture remains frosty, with gambling regulators in France, the Netherlands and Portugal voicing opposition. Polymarket, which is chasing a $21bn valuation, has engaged with the UK’s Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) and the EU’s European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA).

Market Integrity Risks and Australian Implications

ASIC sees additional market integrity risks, including the potential for misuse of confidential information, market manipulation, and disputes about how event outcomes are determined. Court warned that Australians accessing offshore prediction markets directly online have no protections under Australian law. Australian financial service licensees facilitating such access remain subject to all their licence obligations.

As first reported by SBC News, the position makes Australia a no-go zone for the foreseeable future for operators seeking securities rather than gambling regulation. The clarity from Court removes ambiguity for licensees and retail participants alike.

The Barrier for Operators

Prediction market platforms must now treat Australia as closed to retail offerings under a securities framework. This forces a choice between pursuing gambling licences elsewhere or accepting limited domestic reach, sharpening the global regulatory fragmentation that already separates supportive regimes from resistant ones.