Polymarket Launches Investigation into Suspicious Trades on Israeli Election Outcome
Polymarket is probing hundreds of new accounts for suspicious bets favoring Netanyahu's Likud in Israel's election, with one late account turning $14,000 into $42,000. This fits a pattern of manipulation claims over the past 18 months, as U.S. senators press both Polymarket and Kalshi on platform integrity ahead of midterms.
SCCG Take — The repeated incidents signal that prediction markets remain vulnerable to coordinated trading, likely accelerating U.S. regulatory and legislative pressure on the sector.
Polymarket is investigating trades placed by hundreds of new accounts on the outcome of this week's Israeli general election. The New York-headquartered company, valued at US$22 billion (£16.38bn), confirmed the review of bets favoring incumbent Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his Likud party, according to iGaming Future.
The suspicious activity occurred just before polls closed in an election described as among the most consequential in Israel's history since 1948. Netanyahu's bloc secured 53 seats in the 120-seat Knesset, while opposition leader Gadi Eisenkot and allied parties took 48 seats.
Patterns of Suspicious Activity
A data analysis firm, Polysights, reported massive inflows of YES buys on fresh wallets for a Likud win. This is definitely worth investigating. A high-level source told iGaming Future: "This appears to be the latest attempt to manipulate prediction markets."
One account created only 20 minutes before the Israeli polls closed bet $14,000 on a Likud win and cashed out for $42,000 after the odds rose, per The New York Times.
History of Controversies
Polymarket has faced multiple insider trading scandals over the past 18 months. These include a reported Mossad member's bets on the timing of U.S.-Israeli air attacks on Iran's nuclear facilities and wagers linked to a U.S. strike on Venezuela placed by sources close to the Trump administration.
The company, led by 28-year-old Shayne Coplan, and rival Kalshi, led by Tarek Mansour and Luana Lopes Lara, are both subject to U.S. lawsuits and investigations over legal status, market manipulation, and insider betting. Senators Elizabeth Warren and John Curtis have written to both platforms inquiring about potential manipulation, with U.S. midterm elections days away. Kalshi has separately sought to distance itself from certain political bets.
Gaming, betting and prediction markets — the desk’s read, every weekday.
Subscribe →