Nevada Gubernatorial Race Pits Gaming-Backed Lombardo Against Union-Supported Ford With Markets Favoring Challenger

Nevada voters decide Tuesday in a gubernatorial race between incumbent Republican Joe Lombardo and Democratic candidate Aaron Ford, the state attorney general. The outcome will directly affect the largest gaming market in the US, where the industry has directed substantial funds toward Lombardo while Ford has led successful legal action against prediction markets.

Prediction markets on Kalshi and Polymarket now list Ford above 75% after Lombardo held the lead through August and September. Traditional polling remains divided, with one recent survey showing Ford at 45% to Lombardo's 44% and another from 6 October giving Lombardo a 42%-40% edge. Nevada has elected Republican governors for most of the past 28 years, a run interrupted only by Steve Sisolak from 2018 to 2022.

Gaming Donors Deliver Clear Financial Edge to Lombardo

Lombardo received $6.1 million in direct contributions from 1 January to 30 September and spent $12.4 million in that period. Ford raised $4.9 million and spent $5.2 million, according to filings with the Nevada Secretary of State’s Office.

Gaming-affiliated donors have supplied over $10 million to the Nevada Way PAC backing Lombardo. Specific contributions include $3 million from Station Casinos, $1 million each from Frank Fertitta and Lorenzo Fertitta of Station Casinos, $1 million from Las Vegas Sands, $350,000 from South Point Hotel and Casino, $200,000 from Boyd Gaming, $200,000 from the Venetian Las Vegas, $170,000 from Caesars Entertainment, $160,000 from Wynn Resorts, $150,000 from MGM Resorts, and smaller sums from Fontainebleau Las Vegas, El Cortez Hotel and Casino, Golden Entertainment, and Light & Wonder.

Lombardo, a former Clark County sheriff, is regarded as pro-business. State gaming regulators have eliminated several outdated regulations at his direction. He received an endorsement from Donald Trump.

Where the Risk Lies for Gaming Under Either Outcome

Ford has secured endorsements from major unions, including Culinary Union Local 226, which backed him in September. He has supported the union's efforts to organize Station Casinos' Red Rock Casino. One Ford-aligned PAC received $11 million, including $3 million routed through a separate PAC funded by multiple unions and individuals.

Ford's office has driven Nevada's opposition to prediction markets. The state bans trading in sports, entertainment, and election event contracts, and the Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals ruled in Nevada's favor in August. "Nevada has built the gold standard for gaming regulation, and we will not allow companies to circumvent those protections or operate outside the law," Ford said after the ruling.

This contest presents operators with a binary choice. Lombardo's track record points toward continued regulatory streamlining. A Ford victory would likely intensify labor demands and maintain firm barriers against prediction platforms the industry views as an existential threat. The next administration's first budget and appointment decisions will clarify which path prevails.