Polymarket Probes Hundreds of New Accounts Over Suspicious Israeli Election Bets
Polymarket confirmed it was investigating trades placed by hundreds of new accounts on a Likud win. “This appears to be the latest attempt to manipulate prediction markets,” a high-level source told iGamingFuture. Senators Elizabeth Warren and John Curtis have written to both Polymarket and Kalshi asking how much “manipulation” could be happening.
SCCG Take — Repeated insider patterns signal that weak new-account verification threatens market credibility. Operators face rising regulatory costs unless they adopt stricter monitoring now.
Polymarket has confirmed an investigation into trades placed by hundreds of new accounts on the outcome of Israel's general election. The activity centered on bets favoring a victory for incumbent Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his Likud party. Election results gave Netanyahu's bloc 53 seats in the 120-seat Knesset, compared with 48 seats for the opposition led by Gadi Eisenkot.
Many of the trades occurred just before polls closed. Polysights reported: “In the last 24 hours our tools picked up massive inflows of YES buys on fresh wallets [on a Likud win]. This is definitely worth investigating.” “This appears to be the latest attempt to manipulate prediction markets,” a high-level source told iGamingFuture.
Recurring Scandals and Regulatory Scrutiny
The episode fits a pattern for Polymarket, which has faced multiple insider trading claims in the past 18 months. Earlier episodes included a Mossad member placing bets on the timing of joint U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities and wagers linked to sources close to the Trump administration on a potential strike against Venezuela. Rival Kalshi has distanced itself from such charged political markets.
Shayne Coplan leads Polymarket, valued at US$22 billion (£16.38bn). The company and Kalshi, run by Tarek Mansour and Luana Lopes Lara, face lawsuits and investigations in the United States over legal status, market manipulation, and insider activity. Senators Elizabeth Warren and John Curtis have written to both platforms inquiring about the extent of manipulation. One account created 20 minutes before polls closed bet $14,000 on a Likud win and cashed out $42,000 once odds moved.
Where Platform Controls Fall Short
These repeated episodes tied to geopolitical events expose clear gaps in real-time detection of coordinated new-account activity. Regulators and lawmakers now demand answers at a moment when U.S. midterm elections loom, raising the prospect of tighter oversight that could limit liquidity and participation. Prediction market operators must tighten identity checks and trade monitoring or risk enforcement measures that curtail the sector's expansion.
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