Robinhood CEO Says Firm Is ‘Less Excited’ About Sports Event Contracts, Positions Rothera to Lead in Financial Prediction Markets

Robinhood is “less excited” about sports event contracts than other players in the prediction market world. CEO Vlad Tenev said the firm could instead “own” financial prediction markets through its joint venture exchange Rothera. CFO Shiv Verma added that the company is working on “getting off” Kalshi by late 2026 or early 2027, according to InGame reporting.

Tenev said Rothera — in which Robinhood and Susquehanna each own a 45% stake — can support more sophisticated financial contracts. “Rothera can support more sophisticated financial contracts and be a leader there because I think we’re less excited about doing what everyone else is doing, which is just all sports all the time, because I think that’s rapidly going to get commoditized, and is just, frankly, a little bit less differentiated from my standpoint,” he said.

Verma noted that non-sport trades made up 30% of event contract volume in the quarter, up from 15% the quarter before. Tenev pointed to growth in crypto contracts and commodities, with 15-minute crypto markets “looking good.”

CFTC Approval for Rothera Tesla Contract

The CFTC explicitly approved a Rothera contract on Tesla’s earnings per share. Outright approval of a new contract is uncommon and usually reserved for new classes of product. Rothera argued the contract was not security based, citing SEC Chair Paul Atkins’ statement that SEC regulation of similar Cboe contracts does not foreclose CFTC jurisdiction over KPI contracts based on the same underlying KPIs.

Where the Risk Lies

Robinhood traded $16.4 billion worth of event contracts during the third quarter. Rothera processed $6.4 billion of volume, making $100 million in revenue for the company. Overall revenue reached $1.42 billion with post-tax profit of $476 million, down 17% from the third quarter of 2025.

Verma said Rothera will be the primary exchange and Crypto.com the main backup. “What you should expect is Rothera will be our primary exchange, and Crypto.com/OG.com will now be our main second exchange, and we will be getting off most of our competitors. By the end of the year into early next year, you should expect the vast majority of our flow go through both of those.”

The approach carries execution risk. Sports volume previously drove more than half of Kalshi’s activity through Robinhood at peak, yet that share has since fallen below 7%. Differentiation in financial contracts depends on sustained CFTC approval momentum and whether non-sports categories avoid the same commoditization Tenev anticipates in sports. Regulators and operators will need to track how jurisdictional lines between the CFTC and SEC shape competitive outcomes in KPI-based products.