Bernstein Projects Robinhood Prediction Markets to Generate $1.7 Billion by 2028

Bernstein analyst Gautam Chhugani reiterated his forecast that Robinhood Markets could generate $1.7 billion in prediction market revenue in 2028, positioning the figure slightly ahead of the $1.6 billion projected from cryptocurrency trading. In a report released at the start of the week, the analyst also raised his overall revenue estimates for Robinhood by 3% for 2026, 4% for 2027 and 3% for 2028.

Event contracts are expected to deliver $650 million this year. The segment would more than double if projections hold over the next two years. Prediction market revenue already surpassed Robinhood's cryptocurrency business for the first time on a quarterly basis in Q2.

Coinbase Set for Parallel Expansion

Coinbase Global is likewise positioned for gains in the category. Chhugani forecasts $2 billion in revenue from event contracts and derivatives by 2028, up from an estimated $600 million in 2026. That marks more than a threefold rise.

The exchange offers these contracts through a partnership with a major prediction market operator. Perpetual futures and other derivatives form part of the mix, with digital asset-linked products among the fastest-growing non-sports segments.

Customer Acquisition Beyond Direct Revenue

For both platforms, prediction markets extend past immediate trading income. Users who start with yes-or-no event contracts often migrate to options, futures, or retirement accounts. This dynamic supports longer-term customer relationships and product uptake.

Sector growth will turn on customer demand, trading volumes, competition, and the regulatory environment. A small group of specialized operators still dominates the US market, yet brokerages and crypto platforms are pressing forward.