PitchBook Estimates Kalshi Adjusted EBITDA at $1.2 Billion for 2026

PitchBook analysts project Kalshi adjusted EBITDA excluding stock-based compensation to reach $1.2 billion in 2026. The figure would exceed DraftKings guidance for the year despite Kalshi posting lower revenue. A new report covered by InGame details the estimates for both Kalshi and Polymarket along with longer-term forecasts and key risks.

Kalshi gross revenue for the year is forecast at $3.7 billion. The company’s gross revenue, which would exclude rebates, is expected to be $3 billion. The business has already made $2.4 billion in fee revenue before rebates this year. Face volume is projected at $533.3 million. Marketing accounts for about 33 percent of revenue with other costs including compensation and legal expenses totaling around 60 percent.

Polymarket trails with gross revenue of $842 million and net revenue of $526.9 million across its U.S. and global operations. Its adjusted EBITDA excluding stock-based compensation stands at $34.9 million. The report attributes the profitability gap to higher personnel and technology costs from operating two separate exchanges.

Growth Forecasts to 2028

Assuming sports event contracts remain legal, Kalshi gross revenue is expected to climb to $8.5 billion by 2028 with net revenue at $6.8 billion and adjusted EBITDA at $3 billion. Face volume would reach $1.5 billion. Polymarket gross revenue is projected at $3.2 billion with net revenue of $2.3 billion and adjusted EBITDA of $624.3 million.

The report assigns current valuations of $42.3 billion to Kalshi and $20.6 billion to Polymarket. These exceed the levels at which the companies are reportedly raising funds.

Regulatory Risk From Sports Contracts

The estimates assume continued availability of sports event contracts. An unfavorable Supreme Court ruling would weaken both investment cases. In a scenario where the companies lose one-quarter of U.S.-traded sports contracts the report sees Kalshi still generating $5.8 billion net revenue and $1.6 billion adjusted EBITDA in 2028. Valuation would fall to $25 billion. Polymarket would lose $203 million from its bottom line with valuation at $14.6 billion.

The analysis assumes one-fifth of displaced gross fees migrate to permitted contracts at a similar take rate and notes scope for reduced customer acquisition costs. Sports volume from non-U.S. customers would remain largely unaffected. The report states that the possibility of an unfavorable ruling is a real risk that investors should not discount.

Recent trading volumes confirm the momentum. On Saturday, Kalshi’s volume hit a record $5.3 billion, followed by $4.74 billion on Sunday for a $10 billion weekend. Volume for the seven days to Oct. 26 hit $25.5 billion. Kalshi’s fee revenue hit a new high of $23.2 million on Saturday, and totaled $118.4 million for the seven days to Oct. 26. These figures underscore the scale now achieved in prediction markets.