Bernstein Projects Prediction Markets to Deliver $1.7 Billion for Robinhood and $2 Billion for Coinbase by 2028

Bernstein analyst Gautam Chhugani has reiterated forecasts that position prediction markets as a rapidly expanding revenue driver for major brokerages. For Robinhood Markets, the projection shows this segment reaching $1.7 billion in 2028. That total would slightly exceed the $1.6 billion expected from cryptocurrency trading the same year.

Chhugani lifted top-line estimates for Robinhood by 3% for 2026, 4% for 2027 and 3% for 2028. Event contracts are expected to produce $650 million in revenue this year and more than double by 2028. Robinhood releases third-quarter results after the close of U.S. markets. In the second quarter, its prediction market revenue topped its cryptocurrency business for the first time.

Coinbase's Parallel Growth Path

Coinbase Global, the largest U.S.-based cryptocurrency trading firm, shows comparable momentum. Chhugani forecasts $2 billion of event contracts and derivatives products revenue for Coinbase in 2028. That represents more than triple the $600 million projected for this year. Derivative products likely include perpetual futures.

Coinbase offers event contracts through a partnership with one of the largest prediction market operators. Its financial position and cryptocurrency ties place it to capture share in digital currency event contracts, one of the fastest-growing non-sports segments.

Where Brokerages Capture Lasting Value

Brokerage houses do not seek to become pure-play betting companies. Standalone revenue and trading fees matter, yet the larger opportunity is customer acquisition. A Robinhood executive recently noted that many traders whose initial interaction is through yes/no derivatives stick around and engage in options and futures trading. Some even open retirement accounts.

Prediction markets therefore operate as funnels with the potential to create sticky long-term clients. As reported by Casino.org News, this dynamic underscores how event contracts can anchor broader financial services relationships rather than function as an isolated product line. Operators and investors should track whether the projected revenue materializes and how quickly it translates into sustained user migration across product categories.