Lula Re-election Casts Doubt on Survival of Brazil’s Regulated Betting Market

Lula da Silva has won re-election as Brazil’s president with 51.79% of the vote to Flavio Bolsonaro’s 48.21%, becoming the first candidate to prevail in a second round after trailing in the first since the return of democracy in 1985. The outcome directly imperils the regulated online betting sector. Just nine days before the first round of voting was held on 4 October, Lula stated his plan to reverse the 2024 Bets Law he had approved, the statute that opened the licensed market on 1 January 2025.

The reversal took the form of a Provisional Measure requiring bookmakers to shut down by 25 October, after completing player withdrawals by 5 October. Congress holds power to nullify the measure within 60 to 120 days, while the Supreme Court offers a separate route of challenge.

Legislative Strength and Judicial Options

The Liberal Party gained ground in concurrent congressional elections, securing 121 seats in the Chamber of Deputies and 29 in the Senate. This enlarged bloc improves the odds that lawmakers sympathetic to regulation rather than outright prohibition could block or revise the Provisional Measure. The Supreme Court, potentially acting through Justice Luiz Fux, could also strike down the decree, although such a ruling would not restore the five revoked licences and would instead open the door to fresh licensing negotiations.

Regulus Partners assesses that intervention by Fux is unlikely. The firm expects the Provisional Measure itself to lapse but does not foresee the return of the 2025-2026 licences. The sector would remain “in limbo,” the advisory group stated, likely “resolved by more protracted lawfare.” It added that “if Lula’s allies achieve concrete legal progress in suing the post-licensed sector for player losses, then this will probably bury the industry despite the lack of legal clarity on the ban.”

Permanent Change and Investment Exposure

As reported by SBC News, regulated betting in Brazil is not yet eliminated, yet its eventual form will change permanently. Legal sports betting could return while online casinos face prohibition tied to concerns over addiction and societal harm. Major operators that have hired and invested locally, among them Flutter Entertainment, Kaizen Gaming, Super Technologies, Entain and bet365, now confront materially higher risk. Lula’s prior 2025 attempt to double gambling taxes failed in Congress, leaving open the possibility that pragmatism may yet prevail over a strictly moral stance on the issue.

Reporting: SBC News

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