Brazil’s 85 Fixed-Odds Betting Authorizations Expire Without Refund as Provisional Measure 1.394 Takes Hold

The 85 federal authorizations held by 82 companies to operate fixed-odds betting in Brazil expired on October 25, 2026, after the 30-day period in Article 4 of Provisional Measure (MP) 1.394/2026 concluded. Each authorization had required a R$30 million ($6 million) payment for a five-year term plus a R$5 million ($1 million) security deposit. Nearly 190 brands lost authorization with no reimbursement.

President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s MP 1.394 took effect September 25, 2026. It prohibits betting offers and advertising to shield families from indebtedness, classifies prior authorizations as precarious, and revokes most of Law 14.790/2023, the statute that had opened the regulated market in January 2025. Operators ceased taking deposits immediately, returned customer funds within days, and took their sites offline by October 6.

Scale of Capital and Jobs at Risk

Operators collectively paid R$2.55 billion ($510 million) for the grants and contributed approximately R$7.5 billion ($1.5 billion) in share capital. LCA Consultoria Econômica and Cruz Consulting estimate a multiplier effect reaching R$28 billion ($5.6 billion). An ANJL survey recorded more than 3,500 layoffs in the first 14 days after the MP, while up to R$73 billion ($14.6 billion) in revenue between 2027 and 2030 now sits at risk.

Carlos Lima, CEO of the Brazilian Institute for Responsible Gaming (IBJR), stated that “legal certainty translates into the predictability necessary for long-term investments.” He noted companies had built complex operations planned for amortization over 60 months. The MP also severed the unified self-exclusion database that covered more than 1 million registered bettors by July 2026. According to reporting by Yogonet International, the illegal market quickly gained ground, with ANJL’s Legitbet tool detecting 221 new clandestine addresses in the days immediately after the shutdown.

The Legal Uncertainty Ahead

Congress holds until November 25 to deliberate on the MP, or until early March 2027 with a 60-day extension; a joint committee had not yet been formed as of October 23. IBJR and ANJL filed Direct Action of Unconstitutionality 8.027 at the STF on September 28 seeking suspension pending further hearing or vote. Rapporteur Justice Luiz Fux has issued no ruling on the requested injunction.

This sequence leaves operators, investors, and regulators facing an immediate test of how provisional executive action interacts with licensed capital already deployed. The absence of reimbursement or clear transition rules will shape future participation in any re-opened licensing process, particularly where multi-year amortization and compliance infrastructure were predicated on statutory stability. Resolution timing will determine whether displaced demand remains with unregulated platforms or returns under strengthened oversight.

Reporting: Yogonet International

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