NEXTPredict New York Opens with Direct Regulatory Signals and Volume Projections

The NEXTPredict Summit New York convened exchanges, sportsbooks, regulators, investors and economists on October 22 at Convene, 30 Hudson Yards. Sessions examined enforcement realities, market integrity ahead of the midterms and expansion beyond sports events, which still represent the bulk of activity.

Direct Enforcement and Compliance Positions

CFTC Director of Enforcement David Miller, interviewed by CNN’s Marshall Cohen, stated that insider trading and market manipulation rules apply to prediction markets. Miller cited cases brought this year and warned campaign staff and company employees against trading on confidential information. The CFTC seeks registration from large offshore platforms reaching U.S. customers, citing the FTX collapse, while remaining “very pro innovation.”

Jason Robins, CEO of DraftKings, said DraftKings Predictions has become the “clear number three” exchange within months of launch despite availability in fewer than half of U.S. states. Robins noted the decision to withhold sports prediction markets in states where DraftKings holds sportsbook licenses leaves it positioned for either outcome in the expected Supreme Court case on sports event contracts. He expects states to apply sports betting taxation if the markets become permanent and confirmed that DraftKings already extends its sportsbook responsible gaming tools to the predictions product.

Polymarket deputy chief legal officer Olivia Chalos said the platform is monitoring election markets for manipulation attempts, including by foreign governments, though none have appeared so far. Panels addressed suspicious account detection and CFTC resourcing for a growing market. Novig advocated a national self-exclusion system to close state-by-state gaps. The International Tennis Integrity Agency reported rising courtsiding tied to market delays.

Volume Shifts and the Path Forward

Sports still account for most volume, at around 80% by one panellist’s estimate, but participants foresee change. Robinhood reported its most popular contract in September concerned a Federal Reserve rate decision rather than any sporting event and announced approval from Dubai’s financial regulator ahead of a UAE launch. Cboe anticipated a wave of new event contracts including company KPI markets. White Swan Predicts stated combination contracts carried about $18 billion of risk industry-wide in one week and projected around $30 billion a week by Christmas. Investor Neal Berger of Eagle’s View Asset Management observed that prediction markets could one day exceed the stock market in scale.

Jeremy Levine, founder of Underdog, cautioned that current marketing and sponsorship outlays will reward only one or two operators. Economists including Robin Hanson and AQR’s Tobias Moskowitz examined whether the expansion improves market accuracy. According to NEXT.io’s live coverage, the day’s exchanges demonstrated how rules, products and customers are being set through cross-sector dialogue. Operators and investors that track both regulatory signals and non-sports volume drivers will hold clearer sightlines into the structure that emerges.

Reporting: SCCG

Generated by SCCG’s automated editorial system from published source reporting. SCCG Management holds editorial responsibility.