Leaked SMF Draft Reveals Internal Questions on Machine Games Duty Job Loss Claims
A leaked SMF draft shows director Theo Bertram questioning the think tank’s claims on job transitions and crime causality in its call to double MGD from 20% to 40%. The timing, days before the 28 October Budget, has prompted sharp industry criticism from BGC-linked executives. This weakens the evidence base for an anticipated tax rise on gaming machines.
SCCG Take — The leak equips operators with concrete grounds to challenge SMF modelling in budget submissions. Policymakers risk unintended venue closures if they proceed without addressing the flagged national-versus-local employment gaps.
A draft of the Social Market Foundation report advocating a doubling of Machine Games Duty has surfaced with margin comments from its own director questioning key claims on employment and crime impacts. The think tank’s push to raise the tax on Category B machines from 20% to 40% was projected to generate £275 million to £458 million annually. The leak, published by Guido Fawkes, arrives days before Chancellor John Healey‘s Budget on 28 October, where an MGD increase is widely anticipated.
Internal Scrutiny of Core Assertions
SMF director Theo Bertram asked in notes what grounds existed for confidence that workers losing jobs would find work elsewhere. Chief economist Gideon Salutin replied that there was no guarantee for individuals but that national employment would grow, stating he believed the wording was right. On crime links, Bertram warned against overstating causality. Salutin responded that the link was unclear and changed the text from causation to correlation. He accepted the tax would affect bingo halls and seaside arcades but dismissed black market shift concerns. The published report retains references to potential closures, job losses, and crime correlation.
Industry Reaction Before the Budget
Industry figures moved quickly to capitalise on the revelations. Jenningsbet CEO Greg Knight, a Betting and Gaming Council executive committee member, posted on LinkedIn that the SMF had been totally discredited and was using tax as a smokescreen for abolition. Carl Templeton-Smith of CTS Retail & Equine Consulting criticised Westminster policymakers for relying on unscrutinised research, noting a foreword by Alex Ballinger MP, who had led a letter from 90 Labour MPs backing the 40% rate. G.Games founder Helen Walton suggested some knew the data was made up but presented it anyway. A BGC spokesperson told City AM the comments raise serious questions about the evidence for tax rises. This follows Remote Gaming Duty rising to 40% in April, with BGC warnings of up to 3,800 casino jobs at risk, Regulus Partners modelling of 1,500 betting shop closures, and a £92 million annual hit to racing.
Questions for Evidence in Tax Policy
The episode underscores how internal challenges during drafting can be weaponised in high-stakes budget decisions. While the comments reflect normal editorial refinement rather than fabricated figures, they supply critics with material to contest the SMF’s influence on Healey’s final rate, expected by some reports at 25%. Operators and racing interests now have firmer ground to demand fuller scrutiny of projected outcomes before any hike is locked in.
Reporting: iGaming Business (iGB)
Generated by SCCG’s automated editorial system from published source reporting. SCCG Management holds editorial responsibility.
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