Stifel Analysis Reveals Prediction Market Taker Volume Up 27 Percent Trails Sportsbook Handle Growth of 43 Percent in September
Taker volume in prediction markets rose 27% in September against 43% growth for sportsbooks, with overall volume hitting $77B. Smaller platforms gained minimal share amid football season. Macquarie forecasts $190B for 2026 but cites regulatory uncertainty as a barrier. (48 words)
SCCG Take — Sportsbooks retain stronger seasonal pull on bettors. Prediction platforms must address retention beyond promotions or risk stalled conversion from acquisition spend. (24 words)
Prediction market taker volume was up 27% month over month, and regulated sportsbook handle was up 43%. The gap emerged as the American football season launched, a period that typically lifts betting activity across both categories. GamblingNews reported the Stifel data, which used taker volume as the key comparator to sportsbook handle.
Regulated prediction markets generated an estimated 17.7 billion dollars in taker volume. Overall prediction market volume climbed 64 percent to 77 billion dollars. Sportsbook handle in states reporting September figures rose 43 percent in the same period.
Platforms Show Limited Retail Trading Gains
Stifel analyst Jeffrey Stantial noted that hundreds of millions of dollars spent on product improvements and customer acquisition have not yet produced matching growth in retail trading. Single-event sports contracts under Commodity Futures Trading Commission oversight increased 23 percent to 22.8 billion dollars. Combination outcome contracts, similar to parlays, jumped 122 percent to 41.6 billion dollars.
Smaller operators gained little ground. DraftKings’ DKeX platform saw notional volume rise 2 percent. Novig reached a 1.9 percent market share, helped by an advertising campaign with Sydney Sweeney that coincided with higher app downloads and deposits. Rothera, backed by Robinhood Markets and Susquehanna International Group, also failed to secure meaningful additional share. Stantial pointed to a limited customer pool and retention risks once users incur large losses and promotions fade.
Regulatory Uncertainty Clouds Sector Projections
The September results sit at odds with Macquarie’s October forecast upgrade. The firm lifted its 2026 prediction market taker volume projection to 190 billion dollars from 169 billion dollars, with 22 billion dollars seen for 2025. It expects about 80 percent of annual taker activity to come from sports contracts. Macquarie flagged regulatory uncertainty over whether sports event contracts fall under federal commodities rules or state gambling laws as a material obstacle to broader expansion.
Reporting: GamblingNews
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