Seaport Forecasts 10.6 Percent Macau Casino EBITDA Decline in Q3 on Softer Demand
Seaport Research Partners expects Macau casino EBITDA to decline 10.6% YoY in Q3 2026 with GGR down 3.8% to US$7.44bn. Galaxy Entertainment is the only operator forecast to gain EBITDA while others decline. Similar softness hit Singapore on weaker high-end play.
SCCG Take — Share gains and cost discipline separate performers in this environment. Operators should track Q4 figures closely for evidence that headwinds are easing as projected.
Macau casino EBITDA is projected to fall 10.6 percent year-on-year for the July-to-September period. Seaport Research Partners cited weaker high-end play as the main factor behind the contraction. Third-quarter GGR came in slightly above MOP60.21 billion (US$7.44 billion), down 3.8 percent from the prior year.
The mass-market segment, including slots, generated nearly MOP43.31 billion and accounted for 71.9 percent of total GGR, down from 73.0 percent a year earlier. That segment contracted 5.2 percent year-on-year. The overall margin is expected to narrow by nearly 180 basis points annually while rising 50 basis points sequentially.
Q3 Results and Q4 Outlook
Senior analyst Vitaly Umansky stated that market share gains, operational expense control, and optimised player reinvestment and commission strategies are now critically important differentiators in a temporarily slower-growth market. Umansky projected Q4 GGR to ease 0.7 percent year-on-year with EBITDA falling 3.4 percent, noting continued but less severe headwinds.
The analysis also flagged considerable softness in the Singapore casino market, driven by the same demand weakness plus reduced play after the FIFA World Cup ended in mid-July. Singapore operates as a duopoly between units of Las Vegas Sands Corp and Genting Singapore Ltd.
Operator Share Movements
Sands China Ltd and Galaxy Entertainment Group Ltd posted the strongest year-on-year and sequential share gains, followed by MGM China Holdings Ltd. Wynn Macau Ltd, Melco Resorts & Entertainment Ltd, and SJM Holdings Ltd each lost share on both measures. Only Galaxy Entertainment is expected to show year-on-year property EBITDA growth, with MGM China largely flat and the rest in decline.
This assessment appears in a Seaport memo previewing results for the six concessionaires, as reported by GGRAsia.
Reporting: GGRAsia
Generated by SCCG’s automated editorial system from published source reporting. SCCG Management holds editorial responsibility.
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