Parlay Takers Lose at Least as Much on Polymarket US and DKeX as on Kalshi
InGame analysis shows parlay takers losing 15.4% on Polymarket US and 25.8% on DKeX, matching or exceeding Kalshi’s 14.4% rate. Kalshi leads with over $8B weekend volume, $6B+ from parlays and $336M in fees. Professional makers profit via API while recreational takers lose across all three platforms.
SCCG Take — The data confirms a consistent maker advantage in parlay products. Operators must weigh retail participation against the risk of rapid recreational capital erosion.
Parlay takers on Polymarket US and DraftKings‘ DKeX have sustained losses at least as steep as on Kalshi. Takers on DKeX lost the highest share of stakes at more than 25%, an InGame analysis reveals.
Both platforms launched parlays shortly before football season and generated billions in volume over about eight weeks. Taker stakes reached hundreds of millions on each, with losses exceeding $50 million per platform. Takers generally resemble recreational bettors. Market making occurs through a request-for-quote process available only via API, typically used by professional bettors or institutional traders.
Kalshi Maintains Clear Lead in Volume
Kalshi dominates U.S. regulated prediction markets in parlay volume and taker stakes. It recorded more than $8 billion in volume across Saturday and Sunday, with more than $6 billion from parlays. Yes-side taker stakes, the closer equivalent to sportsbook handle, reached $81.6 million Saturday and $91.2 million Sunday.
Since the start of September, yes-side parlay takers have lost $340 million after fees, or about 14.4%. Total yes-side parlay taker losses exceed $870 million since the product launched in September 2025. Kalshi has collected $336 million in fees on parlays since launch.
DKeX Shows Steepest Taker Losses
Early success for Polymarket US takers faded after an August 21 profit of $9.4 million on $4.4 million in stakes. Cumulative losses now stand at $69.6 million, or 15.4% of stakes. Before fees, losses total $419 million. Without that single profitable day, the loss rate would reach 17.7%.
DKeX launched trades on August 26. Parlay volume topped $200 million on both Saturday and Sunday, reaching $2.7 billion total. Taker stakes total $239.4 million, with losses of $60.8 million or 25.8% after fees. Before fees the loss rate is 19.5%. On DKeX and Kalshi, prices at longest odds detach from probabilities due to a 0.1 cent floor. Longest-odds, multi-leg parlays lose fastest for takers.
DraftKings CEO Jason Robins has stated the company engages in market making on exchanges. Identities of the profitable makers on DKeX are not disclosed.
Reporting: InGame
Generated by SCCG’s automated editorial system from published source reporting. SCCG Management holds editorial responsibility.
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