East Africa Regulators Confront Tax Policies That Risk Pushing Bettors to Unlicensed Platforms
iGFEA26 summit highlighted East Africa’s challenge to impose betting taxes and protections without driving volume offshore. H2 forecasts $22B GGR by 2029 and $11B five-year tax leakage. Ugandan and Kenyan officials urged balanced rules, collaboration and targeted harmonisation on consumer safeguards.
SCCG Take — Higher taxes risk licensed market erosion unless paired with enforcement and operator input. Regulators must build local capacity and coordinated standards to convert projected revenue into sustainable collections.
The iGamingFuture East Africa 2026 summit in Nairobi exposed the core tension facing regional governments: securing tax revenue and enforcing consumer safeguards while preventing licensed operators from losing ground to offshore platforms.
H2 Gambling Capital estimates Africa’s sports betting and iGaming market will reach US$22 billion in GGR by 2029. Its modelling projects more than US$11 billion in potential tax revenue leaking offshore over five years if activity remains unregulated. These projections constitute industry assumptions rather than confirmed government losses.
Kenya’s Revenue Authority collected KSh18.933 billion in betting tax and excise duty during FY2024/25. Uganda recorded gaming revenue growth from UGX50.6 billion in FY2019/20 to UGX323 billion in FY2024/25. Yet both markets continue to see significant unlicensed competition.
Summit Emphasis on Principled Regulation and Collaboration
Denis Mudene Ngabirano, Chief Executive of Uganda’s National Lotteries and Gaming Regulatory Board, told the audience that “Balance must be principled. It must protect the public, be clear and proportionate, and allow compliant businesses to thrive.” He added that “Regulators can’t do it alone” and called for operators, regulators and payment providers to occupy “the same room.”
Oluoch Ngicho, Director General of Kenya’s Gambling Regulatory Authority, stressed that “Regulation is paramount. We need to protect consumers. Addiction and social harms matter.” He noted taxation should be enhanced and warned against comfortable balance as innovation advances.
In South Africa, the South African Bookmakers’ Association opposed a proposed 20 percent national levy. Chief Executive Sean Coleman warned it could push the effective tax rate to between 38 and 39 percent of GGR, making licensed operators less competitive against offshore sites estimated to hold 62 percent of online activity.
Risks of Over-Taxation and the Path to Measured Harmonisation
The clearest limitation in current approaches is that elevated taxes and compliance costs can accelerate migration to unlicensed platforms, as suggested by more than 7,000 Google search impressions for tax-free betting sites in Kenya over three months. Without enforcement that matches regulatory ambition, the projected offshore leakage will persist.
Ngabirano advocated regional cooperation focused on shared areas such as responsible gaming rather than uniform rules across jurisdictions. Ngicho acknowledged the value of integration but described it as untested and unrealistic in the short term. Both officials called for greater local technology development and reduced reliance on providers located thousands of miles away.
As reported by iGaming Future, turning these discussions into operational policy will require sustained collaboration among regulators, operators and payment systems to produce frameworks that collect sustainable revenue without eroding the licensed market.
Reporting: iGaming Future
Generated by SCCG’s automated editorial system from published source reporting. SCCG Management holds editorial responsibility.
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