Brazil’s Provisional Measure 1.394/2026 Undermines Regional Legal Certainty Across Latin America

Brazil’s decision to ban fixed-odds betting and online casinos through Provisional Measure 1.394/2026 has triggered warnings from industry representatives and legal experts in six Latin American countries. The abrupt reversal of a recently authorised and licensed market threatens investor confidence and regulatory predictability, while increasing reliance on illegal operators that lack consumer safeguards. A special report by Focus Gaming News aggregates these perspectives, which stress the importance of stable rules, independent oversight and policies that survive political transitions.

The core objections center on the destruction of legitimate expectations built by operators that paid licence fees, hired staff, built infrastructure and obtained certifications. Bárbara Teles, director of government relations at ABC-BET and founder and director of AMIG, calls the measure a significant institutional shift. “We are talking about a legalised, regulated activity, subject to a complex and costly authorisation process,” Teles says. She distinguishes gradual reform from the sudden abolition of state-authorised activity, noting that the latter could trigger reimbursement claims and compensation demands depending on case-specific facts.

Legal Certainty and the Risk of Policy Reversal

Dr Miguel Ángel Ochoa Sánchez, chief executive of AIEJA in Mexico, warns that the Brazilian action projects an image of instability even if viewed as isolated. “Any investment requires long-term legal certainty. Especially when the sums involved and the necessary infrastructure are substantial,” Ochoa Sánchez argues. He adds that governments must recognise the industry’s economic contribution and adopt policies that outlast electoral cycles, or risk losing tax revenue to illegal channels.

Tatiana María Vásquez, a Colombian gambling regulation lawyer and partner at Vásquez & Asociados, questions the consistency of state responses. She maintains that problems with debt or public health should be corrected inside the regulated system rather than addressed through blanket prohibition. Cecilia Valdés, chief executive of the Asociación Chilena de Casinos de Juego, reinforces that authorities must respect the legal frameworks they create, whether those frameworks authorise or prohibit an activity.

The Migration to Unregulated Operators

Multiple contributors identify a direct risk that demand will shift to black-market platforms offering no age verification, spending limits, responsible gambling tools or fraud controls. Carlos Fonseca, managing partner of Gaming Law SAC and Gaming Law LatAm, states that “banning legal supply does not eliminate demand: it simply shifts it to the black market.” Luis Gama, executive secretary of CUOASEC in Uruguay, agrees that a policy meant to protect consumers could instead expose them to greater harm.

Regional Implications for Regulatory Design

These assessments reveal the fragility of regulated gambling markets when subject to sudden political reversal. Operators and investors in Latin America must now price in elevated sovereign risk when evaluating licence acquisitions or infrastructure commitments. Regulators elsewhere in the region should treat the Brazilian measure as a prompt to embed higher thresholds of legal certainty and evidence-based review before altering authorised activities.

Reporting: Focus Gaming News

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