Catena Media Drops 2026 Double-Digit Growth Targets After 29% Q3 Revenue Decline

Catena Media no longer expects double-digit organic growth in group revenue and adjusted EBITDA for 2026. The company reported a weak third quarter with revenue down 29% year-on-year to €8.3m from €11.6m. Adjusted EBITDA fell more than 75% to €0.7m from €2.9m, including a reversal of €0.7m in accruals for the 2026 employee bonus programme.

The Malta-headquartered group, shifting focus solely to North America, also expects a non-cash impairment charge of €30m-€35m on intangible assets. Nine months into the year, adjusted EBITDA stands at €4.6m, below the €5.2m recorded in the same period last year.

Search Landscape Changes Expose CPA Model Vulnerabilities

Catena Media cited declining search rankings due to AI and shifts in search engines, alongside reduced operators’ marketing revenue, as primary drivers. More than 90% of new customers come through cost-per-acquisition deals. This structure provides limited recurring revenue to offset market pressures.

“This was a weak quarter and our results reflect that. The search landscape is undergoing a rapid and fundamental shift, and as a predominantly cost-per-acquisition (CPA)-based business our results reflect the effects of these changes immediately and in full,” said Manuel Stan, Chief Executive Officer of Catena Media.

Stan said the results reinforce the strategic direction set in the second quarter. The group is reducing dependence on search via diversification, including the TraffiqX project, new verticals like prediction markets, and customer loyalty programmes. TraffiqX is scheduled to launch in the first quarter of 2027 and is expected to mirror the contribution of MRKTPLAYS, which accounted for over a third of group revenue in the first half of 2026. According to reporting by SBC News, these moves follow a restructuring initiated after Stan became CEO in 2024.

Share Price Drop and Technology Appointment

The preliminary results triggered a near-20% decline in Catena Media’s share price to SEK 2.55, pulling it well below the yearly peak of SEK 4.40 reached two months earlier. The stock remains up more than 50% year-to-date.

The company appointed Martin Zetterlund, former Accenture Managing Director for Sweden, as interim chief technology officer. Execution on diversification will determine whether the affiliate group can stabilise performance amid persistent search volatility and industry marketing constraints.

Reporting: SBC News

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