Prediction Market Volume for 2026 US Midterms Nears $1 Billion Amid NBA Prop Limits and CFTC Swap Proposal

Prediction market volume for the 2026 US midterms has reached more than $750 million in notional trading as of October 15. This reflects a nearly eight-fold increase from the $92.4 million traded on Congressional and state races in 2024. More than 21,000 midterm offerings are now available on Kalshi and Polymarket, with the Anti-Corruption Data Collective projecting total volume could hit $1.6 billion once voting concludes.

The activity builds directly on the 2024 presidential contracts, where Polymarket priced Donald Trump at around 58% odds on Election Night against polling that showed a dead heat. Shayne Coplan, Polymarket CEO, described the outcome in a Netflix documentary. “That was one of the most gratifying moments ever,” Coplan exclaimed. “From that moment on, there was a level of credibility that prediction markets changed entirely.” Author James Surowiecki remarked that the current midterms represent “one of the biggest tests for prediction markets” because of the stakes involved.

NBA Imposes Prop Restrictions Without Formal CFTC Agreement

The NBA and its official sportsbook partners agreed to ban props on certain reserve players expected to receive less than 12 minutes of game time. Bettors are also barred from taking multiple “unders” on one player’s statistical performance in a single game. The league has conducted formal talks with the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission toward an integrity framework but has not signed a Memorandum of Understanding. NBA executive vice president Scott Kaufman-Ross conceded that such restrictions could be difficult to enforce without that deal.

CFTC Moves to Classify Event Contracts as Swaps

On October 9 the CFTC issued a Notice of Proposed Rulemaking that would expand the definition of financial swaps to include sports and political event contracts. CFTC Chair Michael Selig defended the position in a Fox Business interview. “We regulate these in our derivatives markets every day, whether it’s oil or any type of commodity,” he said. “My concern is that you can’t offer an order book in a casino, that’s not how these wagers work when they are placed with a bookie.” A majority of state attorneys general contest the CFTC’s exclusive jurisdiction, setting up potential Supreme Court review.

These parallel developments in volume, sports integrity measures, and federal rulemaking will determine how prediction markets operate under competing regulatory claims.

Reporting: iGaming Business (iGB)

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