KB Securities Forecasts Lower Q3 Earnings for Lotte Tour Development but Flags Jeju Dream Tower Growth Capacity

KB Securities expects Lotte Tour Development to report lower Q3 2026 earnings than previously forecast. The downward revision reflects a mainland China crackdown on undeclared overseas income together with limited results from the Jeju Dream Tower VIP rolling table business.

Choi Yong-hyun at KB Securities noted that visitor counts at the foreigner-only casino keep rising while drop amount per visitor has stalled. The analyst nonetheless identified several markers that point to further expansion.

Earnings Headwinds Tied to Source-Market Policy

“While the number of visitors to Lotte Tour Development continues to grow, the growth in ‘drop amount’ (the amount of cash exchanged for gaming chips) per visitor remains limited,” Choi said. “This is likely due to policy changes in China.”

The VIP rolling program records average revenue of KRW13 million per gaming table per day. That sits below the KRW 20 million average in Macau. Jeju Dream Tower set repeated records for visitation and casino sales over the past 18 months, including a new visitation high in September. Casino revenue still fell sharply that month because hold rates declined.

Structural Levers for Future Visitor and Yield Gains

Club membership reached 166,000 in Q3, up from 149,000 the previous quarter. Casino guests fill only about 50 percent of the hotel occupancy. Choi cited expected increases in Jeju-Macau flight frequency and new routes from China as factors that should keep arrivals on an upward path. Comparisons with Macau remain modest, which leaves additional room for the property to capture share.

The research note, covered by Inside Asian Gaming, therefore pairs near-term caution on earnings with longer-term optimism on operational scale at the Jeju asset. Operators in similar outbound-dependent jurisdictions will track whether flight additions translate into higher drop per visitor or simply repeat the current volume-without-yield pattern.

Reporting: Inside Asian Gaming

Generated by SCCG’s automated editorial system from published source reporting. SCCG Management holds editorial responsibility.