US Poll Exposes Bipartisan Resistance to Prediction Markets on Elections, Military Action, and Policy Choices

A new Reuters/Ipsos poll shows most Americans oppose using prediction markets to wager on US elections, military operations, and government decisions. The survey highlights a gap between commercial growth in the sector and public acceptance, as platforms seek to broaden their reach.

Conducted from September 30 to October 5, the poll found 69% of Democrats and 61% of Republicans firmly against election betting. 65% of respondents opposed wagers on US military action, and 63% rejected contracts on government decisions. Only 8% supported military-related wagers, and 9% did not mind bets on government announcements.

Bipartisan Apprehension Toward Wagering on National Events

Opposition crossed party lines, with the data indicating limited appetite for turning political and security matters into tradable contracts. This comes after hundreds of millions of dollars were wagered on event contracts during the 2024 presidential election, which first drew widespread attention to the format. Platforms including Kalshi and Polymarket have since expanded into political, economic, and sporting events, yet public discomfort persists.

Integrity Risks and Regulatory Friction in Market Expansion

Rapid growth has intensified concerns over insider trading, market manipulation, and the misuse of confidential government information. An August Reuters investigation found that over 150 Polymarket accounts may have abused insider knowledge on military matters, compounding issues linked to US involvement in Venezuela and Iran. State gambling regulators have challenged sports-related contracts, asserting they are indistinguishable from gambling and fall under state betting laws. The platforms maintain that the Commodity Futures Trading Commission holds exclusive jurisdiction and are litigating the matter.

Kalshi banned former Republican Representative George Santos, who agreed to pay $35,000 to settle allegations of manipulative trading. Both Kalshi and Polymarket state they monitor activity, cooperate with authorities, and act against violations. As reported by Gambling News, these steps have not eased broader skepticism about whether existing safeguards suffice. The poll data underscores specific risks to sector reputation and adoption where national security or policy decisions carry a market price.

Reporting: GamblingNews

Generated by SCCG’s automated editorial system from published source reporting. SCCG Management holds editorial responsibility.