Macquarie Lowers 2026 Prediction Market Taker Volume Forecast to $187 Billion While Highlighting DraftKings and FanDuel Gains
Macquarie forecasts prediction market taker volume at $187B for 2026, reflecting 8.5x growth from $22B last year but trimmed from a $190B prior estimate. DraftKings and FanDuel hold 4% and 3% shares yet double that in non-OSB states, with strong 11% and 7% app downloads. Midterm elections are expected to lift non-sports volume.
SCCG Take — State restrictions continue to silo prediction market upside for DraftKings and FanDuel despite evident consumer interest. Regulators and operators should track how midterm-driven volume tests these geographic limits.
Prediction market taker volume is set to reach $187 billion this year according to updated projections from Macquarie analyst Chad Beynon. The figure sits slightly below the firm’s $190 billion estimate from last month yet exceeds its earlier $169 billion outlook. It signals 8.5x expansion from last year’s $22 billion in taker volume, as reported by Casino.org.
Takers represent retail bettors absorbing liquidity supplied by makers such as professional market participants. September data shows one operator controlled 63% of sports event contract volume. DraftKings held approximately 4% and FanDuel held 3%.
DraftKings and FanDuel Positioned to Capture Share
Beynon notes that DraftKings and FanDuel achieve double their reported share in states without legal online sports betting. Both operators are constrained from offering sports derivatives precisely where they accept online wagers. This limits immediate overlap with their existing customer bases.
App download data from NFL Week Four offers a clearer signal. DraftKings accounted for 11% of prediction market downloads while FanDuel took 7%. Beynon concludes these platforms remain under-monetized and could add share as geographic access widens and product awareness rises.
Regulatory Limits and Volume Diversification
Sports contracts generated 79% of September volume on the leading exchange, lifted by college football and NFL activity. Total industry volume reached $20.1 billion that month, a 1,079% year-over-year rise. Beynon stated: “While sports should remain the largest contributor to volume growth through year-end, the 2026 U.S. midterm election cycle is likely to drive a meaningful increase in political-event trading activity.”
The Regulatory Hurdle
State-level restrictions create a clear ceiling for DraftKings and FanDuel. The same rules that bar sports derivatives in their online betting states prevent seamless product integration. Until those barriers shift, the operators must build prediction market presence separately from their core sportsbook audiences. This fragmentation caps near-term synergies even as download metrics point to latent demand. Forward expansion will depend on coordinated regulatory relief across more jurisdictions rather than volume growth alone.
Reporting: Casino.org News
Generated by SCCG’s automated editorial system from published source reporting. SCCG Management holds editorial responsibility.
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