Kalshi Advances Five Tribal Partnerships for Prediction Markets While Facing Ninth Circuit Setback

Kalshi has secured partnerships with five Native American tribes to launch customer-facing prediction market applications powered by its exchange infrastructure. The arrangements come as other tribes litigate claims that the company’s sports event contracts violate the Indian Gaming Regulatory Act when offered on tribal lands. Kalshi maintains that the model creates genuine economic opportunities rather than diverting revenue from tribal casinos.

In responses provided to Gambling Insider, the operator highlighted record tribal gaming performance to support its position. The National Indian Gaming Commission reported $46.2 billion in gross gaming revenue for fiscal year 2025, a 5.3% increase from the prior year. Seven of eight reporting regions showed growth, including a 4.1% rise in the Sacramento region and 9.8% in the Washington, D.C. region.

Kalshi noted this marked the largest annual gain outside the pandemic recovery period and occurred in regions where tribes had sued prediction market operators. The company added that the evidence shows prediction markets do not take dollars directly from tribal casinos. The NIGC itself cautions that regional revenue figures can be affected by casino openings, expansions, closures and differences in reporting periods.

Partnership Mechanics Leave Revenue and Risk Terms Unspecified

Under the deals, tribes own and operate the mobile applications, controlling branding, marketing, customer relationships and the overall business. Kalshi supplies the regulated exchange layer, including trade matching, clearing, custody and surveillance. The company stated that participating tribes run an ongoing business rather than receiving a flat fee for use of their name.

The first partnership launched in September with the Tunica-Biloxi Tribe of Louisiana through SaltTrade Derivatives. Four additional ventures followed on October 7 with the Alabama-Quassarte Tribal Town in Oklahoma, Greenville Rancheria in California, the Kletsel Dehe Wintun Nation’s economic development arm and the Alturas Indian Rancheria, also in California. The ventures include branded platforms such as PokkeTrades, Sovereign Edge, Greenville and AIR Markets.

Kalshi did not disclose the revenue split, projected trading volumes, expected earnings for the tribes or allocation of legal and financial risks. It also declined to address how the partnerships might affect its position in ongoing regulatory battles.

Ninth Circuit Ruling Highlights Core Legal Conflict

On September 16, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit held that Blue Lake Rancheria and Chicken Ranch Rancheria of Me-Wuk Indians were likely to succeed on claims that Kalshi’s sports contracts constitute Class III gaming under IGRA. The court rejected the argument that the Commodity Exchange Act’s exclusive jurisdiction displaced IGRA, finding the statutes address different aspects of the activity.

The ruling reversed part of a district court decision and remanded for further consideration of preliminary injunction requirements. It did not resolve the full lawsuit. Kalshi told Gambling Insider that the debate can no longer be reduced to prediction markets on one side and tribes on the other, and that regulated national infrastructure and tribal entrepreneurship can develop together.

The partnerships demonstrate that some tribes see value in the model for smaller operations that generate limited casino revenue. Approximately 54.3% of tribal gaming operations produced less than $25 million each in 2025 and accounted for just 4.8% of total industry revenue. Yet the legal tension over sovereignty and regulatory authority remains unresolved.

Reporting: Gambling Insider

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