Macau Maintains MOP$236 Billion 2026 GGR Forecast Despite Four Consecutive Months of Declines

Macau Chief Executive Sam Hou Fai has ruled out any revision to the government’s MOP$236 billion (US$29.2 billion) gross gaming revenue forecast. The decision comes even as GGR recorded year-on-year declines across the past four months.

The January-to-September total reached MOP$187.1 billion (US$23.1 billion). That leaves a MOP$48.9 billion (US$6.05 billion) gap for the final quarter. Monthly GGR from October to December must therefore average MOP$16.3 billion (US$2.02 billion) to hit the target.

Official Commentary on Recent Trends

Speaking at the Government Headquarters Open Day, Sam Hou Fai noted the difficult year-on-year comparisons. “From 2023 to 2025, GGR maintained steady growth, but it began to pull back in the second quarter of this year,” he said. Hou Fai added that October’s GGR figure will prove crucial and expressed hope that the full-year outcome meets expectations.

He listed possible explanations for the slowdown, including a cyclical phase, impacts from adjustments in the external economy and neighboring stock and real estate markets, or the industry reaching a high plateau. “We have no definitive conclusion at this time and will continue to monitor it closely,” he explained. The government’s forecast equates to a monthly average of MOP$19.67 billion (US$2.43 billion). The nine-month average so far stands at MOP$20.79 billion (US$2.57 billion), with only June and September falling below target.

Precedent and Current Position

The government lowered its 2025 forecast in June 2025 from MOP$240 billion (US$29.7 billion) to MOP$228 billion (US$28.2 billion). Actual 2025 GGR reached MOP$247.4 billion (US$30.6 billion). As reported by Inside Asian Gaming, no similar adjustment is under consideration.

Reporting: Inside Asian Gaming

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