Kalshi Volumes Show Traders Prioritizing 2028 Presidential Markets Over 2026 Midterms
InGame reports three of Kalshi’s top four election markets by volume focus on 2028 races, led by the Democratic nominee at $232 million. Senate odds favor Democrats at 65% across platforms while House control sits at 89-90%. The Maine Senate race has tightened per new polls. (48 words)
SCCG Take — Kalshi data shows traders allocating early to long-dated events, indicating platform utility for extended political positioning ahead of 2028. (18 words)
Kalshi traders are directing the bulk of their activity toward the 2028 presidential cycle even as the 2026 midterms sit four weeks away. According to InGame, three of the platform’s four highest-volume election markets concern 2028 outcomes. The standout is the Democratic presidential nominee contest, which has recorded $232 million in trades across 48 options.
Jon Ossoff leads at 17%, followed by Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez at 14% and Gavin Newsom at 13%. The field also includes long-shot celebrity names. The 2028 presidential winner market has generated just over $71 million, with JD Vance at 19% and Ossoff at 12%. The Republican nominee market sits at approximately $68 million, where Vance holds 44% and Marco Rubio 17%.
Activity in California races further illustrates the user base. The Los Angeles mayoral market has seen $99 million in volume, with Nithya Raman favored over Karen Bass at 59%-40%. The California gubernatorial market totals $54 million, showing Xavier Becerra at 96%.
Midterm Odds Updates
Senate control probabilities have shifted toward Democrats since the prior week. The party now trades at 65 cents on PredictIt, 66% on Robinhood, and 65% on Polymarket and Kalshi. House control is more decisive, with Democrats favored at 89% or higher on the same platforms. Seat-range markets on Kalshi imply roughly a 75% likelihood of Democrats securing at least a 228-207 edge.
The Maine Senate contest has narrowed. Kalshi lists Democrat Troy Jackson at 57-43 over incumbent Susan Collins, with comparable edges on other exchanges. Recent polls from AARP, Marist and CBS News/YouGov show tighter results, including one tie at 50% each. Markets assign roughly 10% odds to passage of the Sunshine Protection Act by year-end.
These patterns confirm that a substantial share of Kalshi volume is already positioned beyond the immediate midterms.
Reporting: InGame
Generated by SCCG’s automated editorial system from published source reporting. SCCG Management holds editorial responsibility.
Gaming, betting and prediction markets — the desk’s read, every weekday.
Subscribe →