SOFTSWISS Report Projects North America to Lead Online Gambling Growth at 15 Percent CAGR as European Taxation and Limits Drive Channelisation Risks
SOFTSWISS forecasts global iGaming GGR rising from $349B in 2026 to $415.5B by 2028 at 9% CAGR, led by North America at 15%. Europe grows at 6% but sees channelisation drop below 50% in the Netherlands after tax hikes, with offshore GGR in Britain projected up 110%. The report flags risks of player migration to unlicensed operators.
SCCG Take — European regulators must weigh tax and product rules against measurable channelisation losses, while North America’s fragmentation continues to slow full-market potential despite superior growth projections.
North America is projected to lead global online gambling expansion over the coming two years while Europe contends with regulatory measures that risk pushing activity offshore. The SOFTSWISS iGaming Trends 2027 report, as covered by iGaming Business, draws on H2 Gambling Capital data to map these divergent paths.
SOFTSWISS projects global online gambling gross gaming revenue (GGR) will increase from $349 billion in 2026 to $415.5 billion by 2028. This corresponds to a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 9% over the two-year period. Mobile platforms are identified as the primary catalyst, with mobile’s share of onshore GGR expected to climb from 45% in 2026 to 78% in 2028.
North America: Fastest Growth in a Fragmented Landscape
North America shows the strongest momentum, with online GGR projected to advance from $58.1 billion in 2026 to $76.6 billion in 2028 at a 15 percent CAGR. The United States recorded 27.6 percent growth in 2025, reaching a record $10.74 billion, of which Michigan, New Jersey and Pennsylvania accounted for nearly 90 percent. Full online casino authorization exists in just seven states, with sports betting live in 38.
The report notes ongoing legal and structural divides, including challenges around prediction markets. “The US market has and always will be a marathon and not a sprint,” says Brendan Bussmann, managing partner at B Global. “It’s a different conversation for a host of reasons in terms of the nature of gambling, but also in the stakeholders trying to bring a regulated market. Until these stakeholders can get a single plan, delays will continue to persist at the legislative level.”
Europe: Growth Constrained by intrusive Rules and Tax Design
Europe remains the largest regulated market, with GGR expected to increase from $85.3 billion in 2026 to $95.2 billion in 2028 at a 6 percent CAGR. This occurs alongside limit-setting measures in 30 jurisdictions, Germany’s slot stake limits and five-second spin delays, a €1,000 monthly cross-operator deposit cap, UK moves toward £5 and £2 slot caps, and Netherlands deposit checks of €700 for adults over 24 and €300 for younger players.
The Netherlands’ regulated channel share fell below 50 percent in the first half of 2025 after a tax rise to 37.8 percent of GGR. In Great Britain, offshore GGR is forecast to increase 110 percent by 2028. The report warns that aggressive taxation and product restrictions may accelerate migration to unlicensed operators, eroding licensed platform competitiveness.
Where the Risk Lies
Tax design and channelisation metrics remain decisive. European regulators face the concrete limitation that policies reducing the licensed experience’s appeal have already demonstrably shifted volume offshore, while North American operators must manage prolonged state-by-state fragmentation even as the region delivers higher growth. Future policy calibration will determine whether regulated markets retain share or cede ground.
Reporting: iGaming Business (iGB)
Generated by SCCG’s automated editorial system from published source reporting. SCCG Management holds editorial responsibility.
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