Polymarket Retains Lead in Branded Search Demand for US Prediction Markets While Kalshi Commands Trading Volume
Blask data through August 2026 shows Polymarket at 57.8% BAP share for branded search demand versus Kalshi at 35.8%. Kalshi led August trading at $37.17 billion against Polymarket’s combined $8.16 billion. The gap underscores separate measurements of attention and liquidity in US prediction markets.
SCCG Take — Search leadership does not yet translate into volume dominance. Participants should track both metrics separately to gauge acquisition versus execution effectiveness.
New Blask data shows Polymarket retains the largest share of branded search demand in US prediction markets even as Kalshi substantially outpaces it on trading volume. The analytics firm tracked activity between January and August 2026 using its Brand’s Accumulated Power metric. The findings appear in a Gambling Insider report.
Polymarket lost 16.56 percentage points of BAP share from 74.3% to 57.8%. Kalshi gained 12.7 points from 23.1% to 35.8%. The two firms’ combined share fell from 97.4% to 93.6%. Novig recorded the fastest Blask Index rise among smaller names, up 64.9% from January to July. Trading figures told a different story. Kalshi posted $37.17 billion in August volume against a combined $8.16 billion for Polymarket and Polymarket US.
Kalshi Narrows Gap on Major Events
Kalshi’s BAP share increased from 18% in May to 29% in June and 36% in July during the World Cup period while Polymarket fell from 80% to 69% and then 61%. Kalshi’s Blask Index rose 22.8% between January and July even as the overall prediction-market segment contracted 22%. Branded search peaked on March 2 ahead of midterm primaries at more than four times a mid-May baseline. Super Bowl Sunday exceeded that baseline by more than three times. World Cup median daily levels ran 38% above the prior four weeks.
Limits of Search as Proxy for Trading Activity
Blask cautions that BAP tracks attention rather than matched trades. The firm stated that trading volume functions as a liquidity metric while BAP functions as an attention metric. Its Share of Search approach showed 95% correlation with performance in traditional iGaming yet remains untested for prediction-market volume specifically. The company described the predictive link in this sector as an open question not yet studied. Operators must therefore treat search demand and trading volume as distinct signals across separate stages of the customer journey rather than assume one substitutes for the other as the market develops further.
Reporting: Gambling Insider
Generated by SCCG’s automated editorial system from published source reporting. SCCG Management holds editorial responsibility.
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