New Report Quantifies EU Online Gambling Black Market at 72 Percent of Total Revenue

A new report estimates that unregulated operators generated €91.6 billion in gross gambling revenue across the EU’s 27 member states in 2025. That compares with €36.5 billion for regulated operators, for a total online market of €128 billion. The unregulated share reaches 72 percent under the analysis commissioned by the Campaign for Fairer Gambling and performed by Gaming Compliance International.

The numbers exceed other recent estimates. A Regulus Partners study for Euromat placed the illegal market at €12 billion, or 25 percent. H2 Gambling Capital put it at about €18 billion, or 27 percent. National data show smaller figures, with France at €2 billion, Germany at €547 million for 2024, and the Netherlands at €617 million for the first half of 2025.

Methodology and Market Size Disputes

The analysis converts web traffic into revenue through a value per visit benchmark. It combines human review, machine learning, and third-party data while publishing the lower end of the modelled range. GCI states that the work should be judged on the methodology and evidence. The total market size cited also differs from EGBA and H2 figures that placed EU online gambling at roughly €48 billion in 2024, including the UK which this report excludes.

Industry responses acknowledge the growth trend in illegal activity while urging caution on the precise figure. The EGBA described illegal gambling as substantial, growing, and the sector’s biggest challenge. LeoVegas senior director of legal and regulatory affairs Carl Brincat noted the difficulty of measuring undisclosed activity but affirmed the underlying trend is real. As reported by iGaming Business, the discussion turns on enforcement against the broader ecosystem of affiliates, payment providers, advertising platforms, and technology suppliers that sustain unlicensed operators.

Enforcement Infrastructure Over Additional Taxation

The Campaign for Fairer Gambling argues that governments must target enabling companies rather than chase individual sites. It suggests that successful enforcement could give governments scope to raise revenue from the legal sector through higher taxes. Campaign founder Derek Webb pointed to the UK increase from 21 percent to 40 percent, after which the Treasury provided £26 million for enforcement efforts.

Licensed operators and trade bodies counter that higher taxation widens the competitive gap. EGBA and Betting and Gaming Council spokespeople stressed that added costs on regulated firms weaken odds, bonuses, and channelisation while illegal operators pay no taxes or compliance expenses. Borut Petek of Super Technologies called for proportionate rules that keep players in the regulated market. The report leaves open whether Europe will mount the coordinated, cross-border response required to address infrastructure that operates beyond national borders.

Reporting: iGaming Business (iGB)

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