Better Collective Cuts 2026 Guidance After Brazil Imposes Fixed-Odds Betting Ban

Better Collective has cut its 2026 guidance, suspended its 2027-2028 targets and halted its share buyback programme after the Brazilian government issued a Provisional Measure banning fixed-odds betting. The measure, introduced on 25 September 2026, prohibits the operation, offering, intermediation and advertising of sports betting and online gaming. It entered into force immediately upon publication and requires licensed platforms to shut down after a 10-day transition period.

According to iGaming Future, the action creates material uncertainty for Better Collective Brazil, which had been trending toward approximately EUR 45m in 2026 revenue. That figure represented around 12% of analyst consensus for group revenue, with roughly EUR 15m still expected in the remainder of the year.

Financial Revisions and Cost Implications

The Brazilian operations carry an annual cost base of approximately EUR 10m, on top of prior investments in onshoring, compliance and product development. A significant majority of revenue flows through revenue share agreements with licensed operators. The revised guidance assumes no further betting or casino revenue from Brazil for the rest of 2026.

Organic revenue growth is now projected at 3-8% in constant currency, down from 7-12%. EBITDA before special items is forecast to range from -7% to +3%, down from 8-18%. Net debt to EBITDA is expected to remain below 3x. The 2027 and 2028 targets were suspended due to uncertainty over the duration and outcome of the regulatory process. The Board described the buyback suspension as a precautionary step to preserve financial flexibility.

Jesper Søgaard, Co-CEO and Co-Founder of Better Collective, said: “Brazil only established its fully regulated betting market in January 2025, and since then a large number of licensed operators have invested significantly in building businesses under the new framework. Removing that regulated market will not eliminate the underlying demand for betting. Instead, it risks pushing millions of players toward illicit offshore operators that have not made these investments, pay no local taxes and operate without the same player protections. Our concern is that a measure intended to protect consumers could ultimately dismantle a regulated ecosystem that was specifically created to protect them.”

Brazil’s Regulatory Path Ahead

Brazil’s federally regulated betting market became effective on 1 January 2025. As of 24 September 2026, 85 companies held authorisations, each requiring an R$30 million fee for a five-year term. The Provisional Measure must now be reviewed by Congress. Its initial 60-day validity runs until 23 November 2026 and may be extended once for a further 60 days. Congress can approve, amend, reject or allow the measure to lapse.

The review occurs against the backdrop of the Brazilian presidential election on 4 October 2026. Depending on the outcome, the market could remain prohibited, reopen under the prior framework or shift to a different regulatory structure. Better Collective stated it will assess mitigating measures to adapt its cost base if restrictions persist.

Reporting: iGaming Future

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