NFL Prediction Markets Projected at 21 Percent of $40 Billion Handle Amid DraftKings AI Scrutiny and State-Tribal Legal Actions

Eilers & Krejcik Gaming projects total NFL handle will hit $40 billion, with prediction markets set to capture 21 percent of trading. Early app download data already places Polymarket and Kalshi ahead of DraftKings and FanDuel. The New York Times investigation into DraftKings’ AI practices represents the week’s most prominent story, as former employees described the firm’s use of data science to gauge wager elasticity and target promotions.

“The best investment would be a problem gambler.” “It is as predatory as it sounds.” “If you lose more, we give you more, so you keep playing more.” DraftKings rejected any implication that its marketing practices are unfair or improperly target customers. Separately, the House Ways and Means Committee approved H.R. 10357 to block a federal tax rule cutting the gambling loss deduction from 100 to 90 percent. Rep. Dina Titus called for passage before Jan. 1, 2027, to prevent taxing gamblers on phantom losses.

Tribal Court Win and State Enforcement Against Prediction Markets

California tribes prevailed when the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit overturned permission for Kalshi and Robinhood to offer sports contracts on tribal lands. The case returns to the U.S. District Court for the Northern District of California. In Connecticut, the Department of Consumer Protection issued nine cease-and-desist orders and nearly 30 subpoenas targeting illegal prediction market activity. Governor Ned Lamont stated that these platforms “are not adhering to Connecticut’s consumer protection standards and gaming laws” and are “not being truthful when they tell consumers that their activities are legal.” He emphasized that the 2021 sports wagering legalization sought “a safe, responsibly regulated market for Connecticut consumers, not to open a free-for-all.” Underdog responded with a lawsuit alleging the state is “unlawfully exercising jurisdiction over prediction markets.”

Major leagues including the NFL, MLB, NBA, NHL and MLS sent a joint letter urging nationwide permanent bans on bettors who harass athletes and officials. The Ohio Casino Control Commission exited the National Council on Problem Gambling after it accepted Kalshi for a $2 million fee. At FanDuel, racing division head Andrew Moore exited after 19 years as the unit cuts staff by roughly 60 percent and prepares to end linear broadcasts in 2027. These accounts appear in iGaming Future’s Letter From America #62 and linked reporting by the New York Times and Associated Press.

Reporting: iGaming Future

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